Between 1971 and 2021 the supply of US dollars in circulation has compounded at 7% per year.
🤯
Meanwhile the gross the domestic product of the United States compounded at 6% per year over the same period.
🤯 🤯
This is just staggering to me.
The GDP is quoted in terms of USD. Who would have guessed that GDP growth could be outpaced by the monetary unit that it is quoted in. If you made every $1 bill $2, GDP would double in nominal terms.
The only way this is possible is if someone is hoarding (and not spending) these USD, ie the velocity of money has gone way down.
Who is it? Is it the Saudis? Investors waiting for a crash? Banks unable to find suitable lending opportunities?
WTF is going on here?
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I reread Influence, one of the greatest books of all time.
It will teach you to be more persuasive and how to avoid being conned by people who know its techniques.
This is a 🧵 of its core concepts based on excerpts 1/n
👇👇👇
It's important to understand that people will do things without thinking about them consciously. Check out Thinking Fast and Slow for more information about this. My use of the 🧵 and 👇 emojis are an attempt thoughlessly trigger retweets.
This is the author, Professor Cialdini Ph.D.
Very importantly he didn't craft this book from an academic ivory tower. They way he came up with the 6 concepts of persuasion was through joining multi-level marketing programs and the like.
The first place I started doing business in was China and I knew I was going to get screwed because it was “China”, a lane of fake products and scams. I had heard the horror stories.
I was right in I did get screwed.
A few years later I came back to the United States and I tried working with a US manufacturer for something that I was previously making in China after my Chinese supplier had screwed me.
Boy was it expensive!
And something very strange happened. I had paid a lot of money for a mold made by an American mold maker and the mold was not working as it should and I told my American supplier that.
- at the same time, they engage in some borderline dishonest activities when it comes to tax minimization (not evasion). For example, Amazon knew they should've been paying sales tax instead of 3rd party merchants, but they also knew that not doing so gave them a leg up against
brick and mortar retail. So they pointed their figure at the merchants and said "they should be collecting" until the Supreme Court ruled that they had to collect.
- Congress doesn't do enough about Amazon and e-commerce for a couple of reasons:
Despite my reservations associated with reading books by non-practitioners, I read this, written by a Harvard business school professor. It had a few good concepts.
1) there are two types of innovations: a) sustaining predictable innovation eg fitting more transistors on a microprocessor for a 20% improvement
B) disruptive innovations eg quantum computing.
Big established players are good at former, bad at latter.
(Highlights and underlines are mostly not me. An idiot read this book before I did)
2. This is my favorite insight from the book. Big companies do not go into disruptive innovations because they are a) low margin at the outset b) low quality c) not desired by their current
Can I get some constructive criticism on the following prediction of inflation?
The below graph is a popular way of showing that overall CPI has been muted (2.25% between 1991 and 2021), but certain categories of goods have seen big increases in prices.
1/n
I like to think about it in terms of the following categories:
- stuff that can be outsourced (toys, clothing)
- stuff that is made cheaper by tech (new cars, software, tvs)
- subsidized or interfered with by government (college textbooks/tuition & hospital/medical care)
2/n
If you look at the categories that have seen the biggest price increases, it's all stuff that gov't is involved in:
- housing (FHA loans)
- education (sallie mae
- healthcare (I don't know how this works admittedly).
3/n