I reread Influence, one of the greatest books of all time.
It will teach you to be more persuasive and how to avoid being conned by people who know its techniques.
This is a 🧵 of its core concepts based on excerpts 1/n
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It's important to understand that people will do things without thinking about them consciously. Check out Thinking Fast and Slow for more information about this. My use of the 🧵 and 👇 emojis are an attempt thoughlessly trigger retweets.
This is the author, Professor Cialdini Ph.D.
Very importantly he didn't craft this book from an academic ivory tower. They way he came up with the 6 concepts of persuasion was through joining multi-level marketing programs and the like.
Before we get to the 6 concepts, a few more intro concepts from psychology...
This is echoed by the famous management theorist Peter Drucker.
This is better known as "anchoring", one of, if not the most, reproducible result from the entire field of psychology.
Concept #1, Reciprocation! it is the tendency to view gifts and favors as debts that need to be repaid.
It even works if you invert it.
But be careful, as common sense would suggest, you don't want to low-ball people at the outset. That can backfire. This is an interesting combination of the anchoring concept with the reciprocity concession technique.
Why Concept #6 Reciprocation, works:
The strongest relationships are win-win and the way to sustain those is "I scratch your back, you scratch mine."
Concept #2, Commitment and Consistency. It is the tendency of peoples' future actions to remain consistent with their past proclamations.
Even when we make commitments to ourselves, we will self-enforce (this thread was on my to do list for today!)
Why concept #2 works:
There is a neurological bias in psychology called "recency". It is easier to recall recent memories.
The more you say something, the more you are "pounding it into your brain".
Secondly, we know that we will be shamed for changing our mind.
Concept #3: Social Proof! It's the tendency for people to copy the behaviors of their peers.
When you need help don't say "help me. Say, you person in green over there, I need you to help me". Make them accountable for the outcome.
Why Concept #3 works: 1) many people doing something is a strong signal that it's worth at least considering, i.e. the wisdom of crowds. If you were in an airport and everyone started running in one direction, you'd be crazy not to at least consider doing so you yourself.
2) I think we're evolutionarily hardwired for small villages and by breaking with the conformist mold, you're basically inviting yourself to get ostracized or killed by your fellow villagers.
Concept #4: Liking! People who are well-liked are much easily able to persuade others to do what they want. IMO, Cialdini's Tupperware party is not an example. People buy & go to the parties because they don't want to be ostracized, not necessarily because they like the host.
Similarity and physical attractiveness drives liking, which drives persuasion (and sales!)
We associate specific people with the feelings they inspire in us. Seeing your dentist may make you queasy to your stomach in some settings. No one wants to be "the bearer of bad news".
Why Concept #4 Liking works:
It's driven by Skinner's association psychology work. If you can drive positive feelings in other people, they'll associate those feelings with you, so whenwhen you ask them to do something they will because they want those feelings to continue.
Concept #5 Authority!
This is the tendency of people to comply with directives coming from people of authority or even people who look like them.
Clothing matters. As Charlie Munger says (paraphrasing) "I have too many unorthodox views, opinions, and behaviors to not dress well." He is a huge fan of this book. If you like this content check out: fs.blog/great-talks/ps…
Why concept #6 Authority works?
People with authority can deliver negative and positive consequences of greater magnitude than people who lack that authority.
Most nurses will kill patients if the doctor told them to because they are accountable for being insubordinate, but not for killing a patient who the doctor is accountable for.
Concept #6 Scarcity: This is the tendency of people to value things that are in short supply. This is why you'll see "limit 1 per customer" on infomercials or sometimes "for a limited time only"
Why it works? It's evolutionary hard wiring and incentives. You don't want to be the primeval villager who didn't get the last piece food that would've enabled your and your family's survival.
Also, some people have big loss aversion and their own internal monologues will punish them for squandering a limited opportunity.
That's the book!
There are a few ideas I want to discuss that are not covered in here. First is neurodiversity. People have different brain types; some people think in images, others think in words. Remember that when you're trying to communicate or persuade.
Psychology is famous for publishing cited studies that cannot be replicated. In other words, you repeat the same exact experiment but don't get the same result. Part of this is publication bias, but another reason (besides academic dishonesty) is that psychology is dynamic.
Let me give you an example. When How to Win Friends and Influence people first came out, it's techniques were like a cheatcode in life, but today with that book being so well known using them in a non-subtle way makes others who know think you're a scammer.
Finally, let me tell you about the Feynman Technique. By summarizing what you read, you retain that information much better.
(Obviously, I'm also trying to build my social media influence!)
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Between 1971 and 2021 the supply of US dollars in circulation has compounded at 7% per year.
🤯
Meanwhile the gross the domestic product of the United States compounded at 6% per year over the same period.
🤯 🤯
This is just staggering to me.
The GDP is quoted in terms of USD. Who would have guessed that GDP growth could be outpaced by the monetary unit that it is quoted in. If you made every $1 bill $2, GDP would double in nominal terms.
The first place I started doing business in was China and I knew I was going to get screwed because it was “China”, a lane of fake products and scams. I had heard the horror stories.
I was right in I did get screwed.
A few years later I came back to the United States and I tried working with a US manufacturer for something that I was previously making in China after my Chinese supplier had screwed me.
Boy was it expensive!
And something very strange happened. I had paid a lot of money for a mold made by an American mold maker and the mold was not working as it should and I told my American supplier that.
- at the same time, they engage in some borderline dishonest activities when it comes to tax minimization (not evasion). For example, Amazon knew they should've been paying sales tax instead of 3rd party merchants, but they also knew that not doing so gave them a leg up against
brick and mortar retail. So they pointed their figure at the merchants and said "they should be collecting" until the Supreme Court ruled that they had to collect.
- Congress doesn't do enough about Amazon and e-commerce for a couple of reasons:
Despite my reservations associated with reading books by non-practitioners, I read this, written by a Harvard business school professor. It had a few good concepts.
1) there are two types of innovations: a) sustaining predictable innovation eg fitting more transistors on a microprocessor for a 20% improvement
B) disruptive innovations eg quantum computing.
Big established players are good at former, bad at latter.
(Highlights and underlines are mostly not me. An idiot read this book before I did)
2. This is my favorite insight from the book. Big companies do not go into disruptive innovations because they are a) low margin at the outset b) low quality c) not desired by their current
Can I get some constructive criticism on the following prediction of inflation?
The below graph is a popular way of showing that overall CPI has been muted (2.25% between 1991 and 2021), but certain categories of goods have seen big increases in prices.
1/n
I like to think about it in terms of the following categories:
- stuff that can be outsourced (toys, clothing)
- stuff that is made cheaper by tech (new cars, software, tvs)
- subsidized or interfered with by government (college textbooks/tuition & hospital/medical care)
2/n
If you look at the categories that have seen the biggest price increases, it's all stuff that gov't is involved in:
- housing (FHA loans)
- education (sallie mae
- healthcare (I don't know how this works admittedly).
3/n