WITHOUT FEELING ASHAMED??
The reason why doctors are forced to leave behind non elective activities is exactly because Hospital are crowded by Covid19 patients
Whis is the consequence of some Countries, willingly or not consciously or not, having implemented the GBD protocol
2/n
Or the GBD people believe hospital crowding of Covid19 patients is a hoax?
On top just to add to the shame, GBD protocols not only increases risk to potential Covid19 patients (vertical risk), but also spills over in other areas (horizontal risk)
3/n
what the hell happens if you have a car accident in India or Brasil and you need ICU now? What if you have a stroke?
GBD increases not only Covid19 risks. It increases all risks
ON EPIDEMIC, RISK AND FINANCE 3d
I am in the finance business. I deal in equities. Therefore i price risk in the most risky part of the capital structure
Think about a company: Market value is W= debt+equity
if this was 60+40=100 and the market prices W is now 80
1/n
providing no change in bankruptcy risk pricing (ie debt is still priced at par), equity goes to 20 (-50%) while W is only -20%
Avoiding these is what i do for living.
Agents dictate pricing and there is nothing you can do if not taking notice when this happens
2/n
you cannot contend the risk pricing by agents. It happens. If it is wrong, time will tell. You can go against it (namely you buy more equity lower down) but you have to have staying power (money) until your pricing proves correct
LA CAUTELA CHE CI VUOLE. NO. NON E' TERRORISMO. SONO I DATI 3d
ricordate i tweets e gli studi
"I VACCINI IN ISRAELE SONO EFFICACI AL 110% DOPO 1 DOSE ANZI BASTA GUARDARE UN VACCINO E SEI A POSTO" ?
1/n
(l'ultima l'ho scritta per ridere ma c'e' uno studio che dice che ti spuntano le Tcells se sei in presenza di un contagiato, ma nn troppo vicino...boh ok)
ON THE GBD AGAIN: THE LAST ZIG ZAG 3d
sorry to come back again
The last zig zag of the GBD pundits is
"GBD is like the current vaccination campaign which is infact aimed at protecting those at risk first. No difference netween vaccinations and the aims of GBD."
REALLY?
1/n
the GBD is essentially composed by 2 statements which are not possible to unscramble
GBD="Protect those at risk+increase Virus circulation in others to reach HIT "
plus some others explanatory statements in the FAQ: like TTT is useless for SarsCov2, to name one 2/n
PROF IOANNIDIS: LETS TAKE IT ON 1/n
The paper (pic) engages in calculating a so called "Global Covid19 IFR" and reaches the conclusion that Covid19 fatality is 0.15% globally, so not distant from flu (0.04-0.08)
What social scientists are doing when writing a paper?
They try to extract general rules from the observed phenomena.
When data are "dirty" or "late" or "incomplete" they use models to infer if not the "stopping points" at least the dynamic of the observed phenomena
2/n
In fondo certi studi di eminenti sudiosi italici ricordano molto le leggi della fisica (non quantistica pero')
E' tutto immutabile
Le curve di infezione? 40 giorni (e 40 notti). Poi spariscono
Le scuole? Le apri e Rt non sale
1/n
i morti? proteggi le RSA e nn muore piu nessuno
Il pubblico? meglio il privato
Il privato? meglio il pubblico
e avanti cosi...
Insomma l'Italia sta sviluppando una sorta di "Modellismo a K costante"
fighissimo. cazzo lavoro a fare
2/n
"Gianlu ma la borsa?"...."eh la Borsa....sale sempre no?"
fa niente se i dati a supporto nn ci sono
fa niente se c'e' una componente behavioral che cambia le regole del fenomeno osservato
Fa niente se gli eminenti studiosi invece di osservare hanno torturato le osservazioni
3/n