Thread by @menakadoshi

The centre's phase 3 vaccine policy allows participation of states and private sector in procurement and delivery of vaccines.

Will this lead to an acceleration of the vaccination programme?

Or does it pass the buck to states, private entities and citizens?

Quick thread...

Former health secretary @sujakrao
says this centre-buys-some- states-buy-some approach will cause more chaos.

It's "preposterous", she says.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

The new policy raises these questions

- Who will vaccinate whom?
- Who will supply vaccines?
- What about the costs?
- And how long will it take to vaccinate India?

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

First, here's where we stand.

India has so far vaccinated 9.4 people in every 100, below mainland China’s 14, Brazil’s 16, Turkey’s 25 and the U.S.’ 64.

The world average is 12.

As yet, 1.3% of our population is fully vaccinated.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

Who will vaccinate whom?

Centre will vaccinate healthcare and frontline workers and those 45+. Free. Via govt hospitals.

Approx. 28-30 crore

States (and private sector) to vaccinate those between 18-45 years.

Approx. 60 crore

@thePHFI's K Srinath Reddy says

Some citizens will be able to pay and vaccinate themselves via private hospitals that can now also import vaccines.

Companies may pay to vaccinate their workers.

But the bulk of the burden will fall on states.

States need vaccines and money to pay for them.

Current Covishield + Covaxin capacity is about 12 crore doses/month.

Estimated to expand to 20 crore by July/Sept. (Should have been supported earlier.)

Sputnik imports/local production: June/July

Maybe Cadila

Pfizer/Moderna etc imports

More here...
bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

Serum Institute will sell to states (and centre hereon) at Rs 400/dose and to private hospitals at Rs 600.

Bharat Biotech has not published pricing.

Imported Sputnik will cost approx Rs 750/dose.

India Ratings estimates the costs here 👇
bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

Increase in vaccine supply will depend on

- How quickly domestic producers scale up

- Getting regulatory approvals for imports

- Availability of imported vaccines

Competition between states for domestic + imported supplies will be messy.

K Srinath Reddy, @sujakrao views 👇

Assuming states find the funding + vaccine supply they also have to

Increase vaccination centres

Ensure uniform data collection

Coordinate for full coverage (eg; migrant workers)

Otherwise we'll have what's happening with oxygen right now.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

So far we have been doing 25-30 lakh vaccinations a day (avg).

If we can scale that to 50 lakh/day then we'll be able to vaccinate 50% of the population this year.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

That's the best case scenario.

Unless, ofcourse our central and state governments work together, with the private sector, and determinedly ramp domestic supply, delivery of vaccines faster.

Then we may pull off a miracle.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

But there are no signs of that right now.

We've lost precious time.

And lives.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

End.