Health Nerd Profile picture
24 Apr, 6 tweets, 1 min read
The weirdest thing about the whole herd immunity through natural infection argument is that it's never happened ever for any disease long-term so it was always a wild idea for COVID-19
Like, sure, pandemics died out - eventually most diseases became endemic and killed only a small number of people each year

But that's definitely what's been bandied about as herd immunity
Imagine if instead of "herd immunity" the message had been "recurring outbreaks with a slowly diminishing fatality rate until after months/years the number of yearly deaths would get low enough to not bother any more"
Sorry, second tweet should read definitely NOT what's been bandied around
"Prior to COVID-19 all these diseases had a metastable endemic pattern with regular yearly fluctuations!"

Yes, exactly
For example, imagine if the Great Barrington nonsense had said "yearly outbreaks with large epidemics until virtually the entire population has had COVID-19 at least once" instead of "herd immunity"

Probably would've been a bit less popular

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Health Nerd

Health Nerd Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @GidMK

22 Apr
There's a silly non-COVID-19 science headline I'M SO HAPPY GUYS
The study itself is interesting - sleep duration and risk of dementia, lots of follow-up, decent sized sample (although relatively few events) nature.com/articles/s4146…
But the headline is super misleading for so many reasons. My faves:

1. absolute risk is really small (~1 case per 1,000 person-years)
2. The authors acknowledge later in the article that they don't know if this is causal or not
Read 5 tweets
21 Apr
2021 will hopefully be the year that the armchair epidemiologists stop being wrong about infectious disease, excess mortality, etc, and move on to being wrong about something else

Maybe economics?
To clarify, because of course I need to (sigh) this is a joke about the twitter randoms who have deemed themselves experts not a critique of interdisciplinary work
I'm currently working on a paper with 3 economists, an immunologist, a demographer, and 2 statisticians on COVID-19. Non-epis have great and valuable insight!
Read 4 tweets
20 Apr
One interesting point is that this article gets several facts wrong. Whether that detracts from the commentary on science or not is I suppose up to the reader
This statement, for example, isn't really true. The U.S. has had school closures much less severe than (for example) South Korea, or a dozen other places. The reference only talks about Europe!
"Studies have repeatedly concluded" - links to a tweet, and two articles on teacher's unions. There are many studies that have concluded precisely the opposite
Read 5 tweets
20 Apr
"Chronic disease has caused COVID-19 deaths, if we didn't have so much diabetes fewer people would've died" - incredibly dumb argument for many reasons, not least that it is true of LITERALLY ALL HUMAN DEATHS
Yes, if we had solved the biggest medical issue of the modern age fewer people would've died of COVID-19

What of it?
I mean, seriously, we've been trying to 'fix' NCDs for decades, and while they are in theory somewhat preventable they are still a large and growing problem in most places in the world
Read 4 tweets
19 Apr
Q: How many people have died globally from COVID-19?

A: Probably more than the confirmed count, but it's really hard to say

coronavirus.medium.com/how-many-peopl…
The basic idea here is that we could be either undercounting or overcounting COVID-19 deaths

I think the most likely explanation is some combination of the two
Based on some very careful examinations of death reporting systems, we can say that there are probably some portion of deaths that are recorded as due to COVID-19 but were not caused by the virus
Read 7 tweets
19 Apr
Omg I am LOVING this story

TL:DR - it is not a study, published in a journal dedicated to unusual hypotheses, and not really "from a major university" 1/n
2/n The article in question is a review of face masks. At face value, it's essentially an opinion piece arguing that masks are ineffective ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
3/n Digging a little bit deeper, some of the stuff in here is pretty obviously wrong. For example, this incorrect statement about 99% mild/asymptomatic is referenced to Worldometers (not a specific graph, just the site)
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!