I've never felt more strongly that I won the ovarian lottery than this past week.

An Amazon delivery driver asked: "What job should I get to be able to afford a house like yours." My answer was: "I was lucky in many ways. Don't rely that. Own a business."

Lucky Man and The Sea. Image
While traveling in the waters of Puget Sound this weekend shortly after the picture in the previous tweet was taken I saw this. Do you know what it was?

I edited a story about this creature once.

I didn't react fast enough to take this picture below, but it is what I saw. Image
Dall’s porpoise (Phocenoides dalli) are one of the fastest cetaceans, their surface behavior usually produces rooster tails. eopugetsound.org/articles/statu…

These are the closing two paragraphs of a Duwamish ledgend written down by my Great Grandfather who was acting as their lawyer. Image
I saw evidence of marine wildlife recovery yesterday when I saw a Dall's Porpoise racing alongside my boat. There's a long way to go in returning Puget Sound to healthier conditions, but it's happening. seattletimes.com/seattle-news/e…
Is there a better lunch than clams, mussels and oysters you just removed from Puget Sound and then popped open on a grill over a wood fire served with Meunière sauce? I don't think so. ImageImage

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More from @trengriffin

25 Apr
"COVID can have long-term effects including pulmonary, cardiovascular, renal and nervous system, and psychological effects. Common symptoms include fatigue, breathlessness, cough, loss of taste or smell (or both), myalgia, and gastrointestinal disturbance."thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
"There's the possibility there was initial damage from the virus — such as damage to nerve pathways that are then very slow to recover. This could explain some of the neurologic symptoms and pain patients experience even after mild COVID." news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/…
Do you really want to increase the probability that you will get Covid by not getting a second shot?

"More than five million people, or nearly 8% of those who got a first shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, have missed their second doses." msn.com/en-us/news/us/…
Read 5 tweets
24 Apr
1/ Wholesale transfer pricing power: wired.com/story/they-hac…
2/ Because it owns and operates some restaurants itself, McDonald's knows exactly how to "solve for" franchisee profitability by adjusting wholesale transfer pricing of supplies. McDonald's wants franchisees to do well financially, but not so well that they quit.
3/ How does MCD protect itself from the pricing power of wholesale suppliers? MCD's "raw material input is generic. It's easy to source from other suppliers." marketrealist.com/2019/11/must-k…

"It's your alternatives that matter." Charlie Munger

Turn commodity inputs into a branded item.
Read 4 tweets
24 Apr
What business is this: Image
Do you find these numbers an attractive attribute of a business? Image
Read 4 tweets
19 Apr
1/ Elon Musk is like a farmer driving a tractor on a straight one lane road at full speed toward his objective. He sees other farmers coming from the other direction on the same one lane road, but knows he needs to get to the end of the road by a certain time to achieve his goal.
2/ Elon can’t pull over and let the other farmer’s go past him. Too slow. So he has taken his steering wheel from his tractor and thrown it into a field so the other farmers can see what he did. He wants everyone to see he is irrevocably committed so they get out of his way.
3/ This sets up an epic competition with other satellite systems including Amazon's LEO constellation. This competition has all the elements of a great movie. A small team of people that included me set all this in motion at the WRC in 1995. This is fun! cnbc.com/2021/04/19/ama…
Read 14 tweets
17 Apr
1/ Who is this person?

"For many years up until the pandemic I had dinner with Charlie Munger every Tuesday night."
2/ He has said:

"We normally don’t talk about specific companies. Once you achieve a certain notoriety in a certain field, people tend to really copy that. This is not the behavior we want to encourage. Instead of giving people fish, it is much better to teach them how to fish."
3/ "To have a business that generates above average returns over a long period in a compounded fashion is against the natural order of things. Only a small slice of all businesses and companies belong in that category. They are rare."
Read 5 tweets
16 Apr
This below was about circle of competence. What about margin of safety?

Munger: It is "acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.”

Li Lu: "If you buy stock with a sufficient margin of safety, the probability is with you.”
Li Lu:

"Investing is inherently about predicting the future. But predictions can never reach 100% accuracy; they can only fall between zero and something approaching 100%. So when we make a judgement, we need a large buffer. This is called margin of safety."
Michael Mauboussin: "Margin of safety can be restated as a discount to expected value. For every stock there is an intrinsic value, and the deeper the discount the stock price is to intrinsic value, the lower the risk." retailinvestor.org/pdf/MarginOfSa…
Read 4 tweets

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