I've written a new report on the Brexit deal for @Another_Europe, picked up in today's Observer with a nice plug from the awesome @NadiaWhittomeMP.

Here's a 🧵 with some of the deets /1
The movement of regulatory powers to the UK is mostly pointless because outside of agriculture (where change has been signalled) and immigration (where change is substantial) in most areas the UK isn't intending to use its new 'powers'. /2 anothereurope.org/reformEUdeal.p…
The UK has won a largely nominal ability to deregulate as the level playing field protections mean that the tariff implications of deregulating in these defined areas make it pretty unlikely to ever happen /3 anothereurope.org/reformEUdeal.p…
The deal is scheduled for review/renegotiation in 2025 so this will feature in the 2024 general election. We outline some priority areas for a new reformed deal /4
Public opinion is more flexible than people - and politicians - tend to realise. Sure, the headline polling does align closely with the typical Remain/Leave divide. But with only 19% of people supporting the current deal.

71% of people expect the deal to change in coming years incl 44% of people who see 'many important issues to finalise' which means 'lots more negotiation'. These people are clearly correct as Brexit never 'ends' as such and involves permanent negotiations with the EU /6
The other interesting thing about Brexit is how the justification is inevitably shifting. It's gone from the great promise of change and transformation to 'nothing in my life has changed so what are you complaining about' /7
Given how much partisan commitment was invested in Brexit as an idea it is pretty stunning that only 9% of people are prepared to say they know someone positively affected by Brexit. I couldn't possibly comment on how honest those 9% of people are being... /8
Pleased to see it launched. Full report here:



• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Luke Cooper

Luke Cooper Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @lukecooper100

28 Dec 20
The Scottish LP seem to think it’s sensible to hammer the SNP for voting against a deal they don’t agree with. And their voters oppose.

The grounds? The “threat” of no deal. It suits some ppl to present the vote in Parliament as a deal versus no deal choice but it’s not true /1
With the U.K. and EU agreeing a deal, the only way to get to a “no deal” would be to replace the U.K. govt with one committed to it.

Why? Parliament has extremely limited power in relation to trade deals and international treaties more broadly /2
Tomorrow the govt will publish their proposed legislation on the deal. There are various options (see below), but it will prob be a short enabling act that provides ministers with more powers to take executive action to implement the deal - not a yes/no vote on the deal as such/3
Read 12 tweets
26 Dec 20
If you’re a neoliberal the benefits of leaving single market in financial services, losing passport rights etc, outweigh downsides. London banks have already relocated staff to EU to handle s/market trade. And the direction of EU is towards more democratic regulation of finance.
If you're looking at this as a big financial investor, I think you'll have a very different view of the deal compared to, say, a Japanese car maker. How can the UK guarantee it will continue to have tariff free access to EU single market in goods? UK can't really offer this.
Problem with presenting 'dynamic alignment' as an issue of sovereignty, when in fact it was about regulatory certainty and investor confidence. Can't really see this working. So what looks like good deal for manufacturing is in fact a bad one.
Read 6 tweets
4 Oct 20
THREAD: How did Boris Johnson win the general election? Prob not the Q on everyone’s lips right now but hey. In true academic style, ie ten months later, I’ve published a piece with @ChristabelCoops in @po_qu

We argue that key to Johnson’s successful manoeuvre was prorogation and the no deal fantasy. It was a performative gesture that crucially didn’t require taking the country close to a no deal scenario.

Johnson identified three target groups: (a) Brexit hardliners, (b) Brexit compromisers, (c) Remain compromisers. The much more adversarial approach Johnson took helped him win support from the hardliners that opposed May’s deal.
Read 11 tweets
28 Sep 20
Happy to be corrected but I can’t see how negative interest rates will do anything other than compound the problem of chronic asset price inflation, especially in the housing market. House prices now on the up again but share of homes purchased by first time buyers falling.
Any thoughts from @AnnPettifor @meadwaj @garyseconomics appreciated!
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep 20
Sorry but saying “the Holocaust was legal” is just such a dumb, ignorant and offensive way to make the case for civil disobedience.
When the Allies declared their intention in 1943 to criminally prosecute Nazi atrocities they were operating under an existing principle of international law to punish as war criminals those who violate the laws or customs of war heinonline.org/HOL/Page?colle…
Even in relation to German domestic law the view that the Holocaust was legal but immoral has been strongly challenged. And raises quite an interesting argument about whether the extermination of a group can ever be 'legal' utpjournals.press/doi/abs/10.313…
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep 20
Rather than arguing about whether Labour advocated a soft Brexit (hard to see how it did given its rejection of FoM till Sept 2019), it's more useful to think about what arrangement we'd like in the future. Although I would have once said join EEA, don't think that would work now
The Tory aim of getting out of EU state aid rules is the right policy pursued for the wrong reasons. As the global economy changes, as deglobalisation takes hold, markets are more dependent on the state. State aid is crucial in this context but can easily become corporate welfare
Against the Tory crony capitalist model, a socialist or social democratic model of state aid should make it provisional on pursuing public goods - such as full employment, ecological sustainability, and industrial development.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!