Thread by @AMSalamone

Joint with the 'Spanish veto', the budget deficit is the most overemphasised and misinterpreted aspect of Scotland joining the EU under independence. Short version: No, Scotland's notional budget deficit does not put EU membership in doubt. A thread. thetimes.co.uk/article/scotla…

All EU members sign up to the Stability and Growth Pact and other rules designed to promote sound public finances and therefore ensure the economic and fiscal sustainability of individual Member States and the Union as a whole. These rules apply to members, not just candidates

As we all must know by now, given this is one of the only aspects of EU membership ever discussed (and poorly at that) in Scotland, these rules include a target of achieving a national budget deficit with a reference value of 3% of GDP or less. The Commission monitors compliance

The budget deficit target is therefore a feature of membership, which all members should work to meet. It is not an iron-clad rule which must be satisfied or else your EU membership or application is over, which is how the target is regularly presented in Scotland and the UK

Put another way, Scotland's national budget deficit would not make or break its application to join the EU. It could apply regardless of its budget deficit at the time. Scotland would emphatically not have to wait to apply to join the EU until or unless its deficit was at 3%

Indeed, nearly every EU member has at one time or another not met the 3% target and thus been in the Excessive Deficit Procedure, including Germany and the Netherlands, the regular top economic performers in the EU & eurozone. A manageable phenomenon then ec.europa.eu/info/business-…

In March 2020, the EU activated the 'general escape clause' of the Stability and Growth Pact to provide all Member States with flexibility on the 3% target and other rules to respond to the pandemic consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…

The EU will surely take pandemic-related fiscal circumstances, for members and candidates, into account on rules and policies for years to come. However, regardless of prevailing views in Brussels and EU capitals on the budget deficit target, Scotland's EU prospects remain strong

In the course of accession negotiations, it is highly probable that Scotland and the EU would find a reasonable and mutually-acceptable arrangement related to the Scottish budget deficit and fiscal trajectory, taking into account Scotland's particular circumstances as a new state

Prospective Scottish EU membership would not hinge on Scotland's budget deficit. Instead of recycling the same arguments on deficit, it would be far better to have a serious and substantive debate on wider EU membership & Scotland's role in the EU – FIN – bit.ly/36kYAK0