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Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
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26 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
I was interviewed for @elmundoes by @ndelatower
Here's the resulting article.

It touches on many important topics: What's trust and who to trust, government failures, human biases, clashes of values, intellectual inconsistencies...
Here's the online version of the article
elmundo.es/papel/2021/04/…
She interviewed me over email. It's hard to condense that kind of information. I had much more content in my email, so I pasted the entire interview in this article:
I had barely ever talked with reporters before COVID. I've known a bunch since. It's not an easy job. One of the hardest things is knowing what to ask. In that, @ndelatower is really good. Thank you!

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More from @tomaspueyo

Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
23 Apr
Lots of bad takes on Biden's proposed tax hike. I must be missing something. What is it?

1. Why do we need to increase taxes if we can print money?
➡️ Too much cash causes inflation. Take some of that cash out of the system through taxes. + tools, + precision on outcomes
2. If you print $ to increase capital gains and then tax them, ppl are worse off
A: You have $100 in stock, appreciates 7% in a year, 0% inflation, 20% capital gains tax➡️$105.6 at the end of the year
B: $100, 40% appreciation, 5% inflation, 40% capital gains tax➡️$118
3. It will disincentivize investments.
➡️What's these ppl's alternative?

Spending? That would be better for the economy. The savings rate of the top brackets is through the roof.

Capital flight? US income taxes are charged on global income, can't escape these like a business
Read 7 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
19 Apr
What are some of the ways in which COVID has changed the world? Would love to hear your thoughts. Here are the ones I compiled:

1. Less flu
Ppl are going to be more careful with flu symptoms. They'll stay home when sick & wear masks
With an R of ~1.4, that will slow it down, maybe even stop it in many areas. Ppl will be less sick and die less. The virus will mutate more slowly.

2. But more aggressive
When a strong new strain arrives, ppl will be less protected, and more of them will die those years
3. Masks will now be normal
We'll use them in public transport, at the doctor's office, if we have flu symptoms...

4. Pandemic Mgmt Laws will appear
The same way as SK was ready for the pandemic because of the MERS epidemic 5 years ago
Read 10 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
18 Apr
Scientists have something to learn from musicians.

Their business models are changing in a similar direction. The ones who realize it quickly will gather an impact and wealth that few could have dreamed of before. 🧵
The currency of scientists is references to their published papers: The more references they get, the more successful they're considered, the more likely they are to get tenure, go up the ranks, and make $
That business model means they need to please their peers and the scientific journals.

Both of these are traditional gatekeepers who have a strong incentive about reputation. The more on the cutting edge the paper, the better. The more jargon, the more it looks advanced.
Read 17 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
11 Apr
How many times have you heard excuses of why the West couldn't control COVID? Only islands, only authoritarian regimes...

Alternative interpretation:
To be clear, I'm not saying it was sufficient to do test-trace-isolate well to control the virus. But it was necessary: without it, you couldn't succeed.

The countries who did test-trace-isolate well also did other things, notably all have a good fence.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
My next article will look at the track record of countries during the pandemic. Sign up to get it.
tomaspueyo.substack.com/p/subscribe
Read 4 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
30 Mar
The Minto Pyramid is a great primer for compelling arguments. Glad you're propagating it, @lennysan!

You also share a very interesting comparison with storytelling, but I think it has fascinating misconceptions worth exploring. Let's do it!
This is the email you propose

I think it can be improved:
1. Your setup is unnecessary (everybody shares that context)

2. The rest is mostly about the pbm. That part is strong and well structured. But 95% of your email is about the problem, while you state it's about resolution
3. You're missing a "midpoint", WHY this problem exists and hasn't been solved yet (recent change in resource alloc? Process broke?)

4. Your solution is 1 line but doesn't give confidence that it will solve the pbm: no root cause, no reason why it will solve the pbm
Read 14 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
28 Mar
“This time it’s different, suuure.”

Some ppl make fun of those who say new technologies (like blockchain or AI today) change everything. They counter that ppl always say “This time, it’s different”, but they’re always wrong

Tell that to 19th century rural workers vs machines
Tell that to WWI generals sending their troops to be mauled by machine guns.

Tell that to the Catholic Church when the printing press broke it.

Tell that to the feudal knights made irrelevant by gunpowder.

Tell that to the Gauls when they saw Romans for the 1st time
Tell that today to cab drivers around the world
Travel agents
Western manufacturing employees
Yellow pages publishers
Encyclopedia salespeople
Those who laughed at COVID
Read 4 tweets

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