Some ppl make fun of those who say new technologies (like blockchain or AI today) change everything. They counter that ppl always say “This time, it’s different”, but they’re always wrong
Tell that to 19th century rural workers vs machines
Tell that to WWI generals sending their troops to be mauled by machine guns.
Tell that to the Catholic Church when the printing press broke it.
Tell that to the feudal knights made irrelevant by gunpowder.
Tell that to the Gauls when they saw Romans for the 1st time
Tell that today to cab drivers around the world
Travel agents
Western manufacturing employees
Yellow pages publishers
Encyclopedia salespeople
Those who laughed at COVID
It’s always “same old, same old”until it isn’t. It’s hard to call right when “this time it really is different”. But those who can are those who win.
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“Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”
The right aspect: When you disagree with other ppl, it’s very common to assume it’s because of their malice, and it’s usually wrong.
But stupidity isn’t the answer either
Ppl might have:
Different goals
Different incentives
Different data
Different experiences
Different assumptions
Different aspects of the same conclusion highlighted
Different processing of the same info.
A different processing of the same info might be better or worse.
If better, you might assume they disagree with you because of malice or stupidity, when in fact you’re just wrong.
If they have worse processing, it might be lack of training, youth, tiredness...
Bravo @NicoMartinFC pour ce prix qui célèbre votre démarche scientifique!
Cette semaine, c'est l'anniversaire de l'article où vous m'attaquiez. C'est une bonne occasion pour l'analyser en détail, sans revanchisme, pour mieux comprendre les nuances de la démarche scientifique.
🧵
Intro
L'article commence par la conclusion, qu'il communique avec un jugement personnel, soutenu par une rhétorique agressive.
Démarche scientifique: 0
Rhétorique: 3
Fourchette
Mon article original avait été publié le 10 Mars. Vu que les infectés tardent environ 2-4 semaines à mourrir, on peut estimer les infections en France le 10 Mars en fonction des morts 2-4 semaines plus tard (500 - 10.000).
Science: Beware, the B117 variant is now predominant in Europe! Let’s vaccinate! Quickly!
EU: Yes, but blood clots.
Sc: Same in the test groups as in controls, right?
EU: Hmm... Just in case
Sc: Hasn’t the UK vaccinated *millions* with that vaccine?
EU: We can’t risk it
👇
Sc: What about the 1000s who will die of COVID?
EU: No worries, we’re going to lock down again
Sc: But that’s going to destroy the economy *again*
EU: Sometimes we need to make sacrifices
Sc: But not clot sacrifices
EU: Duh
Sc: OK so let me get this straight.
You hear some blood clots, which are to be expected just by chance when you’re vaccinating millions, and you decide to stop vaccines, just in case, to prevent them.
Meanwhile you stop vaccinating, which will kill many more, create a new wave of deadlier B117,...
The government? An influencer? A think tank? The CDC? Experts? What does “expert” even mean?
First, you should trust yourself. Everybody else might be wrong or have an agenda
But sometimes you might be wrong / be biased/ lack expertise. What then?
We then say “trust experts”. But which one? You can find an “expert” for any opinion.
What is an expert?
Traditionally, it’s a credentialed person or one named to a position of authority. Both of these things are the same.
A credential is just other ppl vouching for you
If you have a PhD, it’s because you passed some tests made by other ppl who also have PhDs, who got theirs through other PhDs. A PhD is trustworthy insofar as the chain of previous PhDs is.
An authority figure is legitimate only insofar as those naming her are legitimate.
We’re entering a world where sanctions to countries might start disappearing.
They never were very successful anyways. Look at Cuba, North Korea, Iran. Did they really change behaviors?
Not much.
Did their elites suffer and feel pressured? Much less than the ppl
Sanctions were always a pretty bad deal.
Now on top of that, they will be unenforceable.
The US based its ability to sanction based on its grip over the global financial system. That is disappearing.
It won’t be able to size the assets of elites, safeguarded in Bitcoin.
It won’t be able to freeze the pipelines of global trade, because DeFi will replace the legacy use of systems like SWIFT. The requirement to buy oil in dollars will likely suffer workarounds, if it doesn’t simply disappear as the % of US’s global GDP shrinks.