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26 Apr, 13 tweets, 6 min read
Happy census day! In two hours, the census will release 2020 state population counts, revealing which states will gain/lose congressional seats & Electoral College votes in reapportionment.

As a preview, here's what the 2020 estimates showed, but several states are on the bubble
While this data will tell us how many congressional seats each state gets, we still won't know how the population within states has been redistributed until the census publishes census block-level data in August, when redistricting will begin in earnest
We'll update these maps once the 2020 reapportionment numbers are out, but these cartograms based on 2019 pop estimates show the partisan control over 2020s congressional & legislative redistricting. GOP is set to draw 2-3 times as many districts as Dems dailykos.com/stories/2020/1…
BREAKING: The U.S. Census Bureau has released 2020 reapportionment data showing which states have gained & lost congressional seats following the 2020 census. As shown on this map, six states gained 1 or more districts, while seven states lost a seat dailykos.com/stories/2021/4…
Based on 2020 reapportionment numbers released today, this map shows the partisan control over congressional redistricting by state (we'll update this in cartogram form soon). The GOP will draw 38%-46% of districts & Dems just 16% dailykos.com/stories/2020/1…
Had these new 2020 reapportionment numbers been used for the Electoral College last year, Joe Biden's victory would have been reduced slightly from 306-232 to 303-235, a net shift of three electoral votes to Trump.

A decade ago, reapportionment reduced Obama's 2008 win by 6 EVs
Compared to population projections, Sun Belt states gained fewer seats than expected, with AZ, FL, & TX each falling 1 seat shy of expectations, benefitting MN, NY, & RI.

This could be a sign that Trump's sabotage/the pandemic may have undercounted Latino communities especially
Goes to show you how important counting every person is
I'll have more to say on the 2020 redistricting implications of reapportionment in the coming days. As a preview, here's what Montana's bipartisan redistricting commission could draw now that MT regained a 2nd House seat. Both would still favor GOP, but the western seat less so
The fact that three Sun Belt states all gained 1 fewer seat than expected while Rust Belt states retained those 3 seats is a worrisome sign that there may have been a significant undercount of Latino communities in the census, though we'll have to wait August to know more details
Today's new census data release shows that the largest state, California, has 68.5 times as many people as the smallest state, Wyoming. Under the first census back in 1790, the largest state of Virginia was just 13 times larger than the smallest state of Delaware
Alabama should've been required to draw a second Voting Rights Act-protected district after the 2010 census as shown on this map. Retaining its 7th district in the new reapportionment data means a 2nd VRA seat remains very doable after 2020. I'm expecting a @marceelias lawsuit
We won’t have the full population data needed for redistricting until August, but combining today’s 2020 reappointment data & the 2019 ACS population estimates gives us an idea of how many people each district will have to gain/lose

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
15 Apr
By leaving OR Dems in charge of legislative but not congressional redistricting, this doesn't actually lead to less-gerrymandered outcomes. If GOP blocks Dems from gerrymandering Congress in blue states while GOP still does it in many states, the overall map's GOP bias gets worse
Asking Dems to unilaterally not gerrymander blue states for Congress while GOP keeps doing it is like asking Electoral College foes to give blue state electoral votes to the popular vote winner regardless of what red states do.

National solutions are needed & being pushed for
Unfortunately, yes. It's the same logic as ending winner-take-all Electoral College allocation.

That only applies to Congress, though. There's no similar justification for passing legislative gerrymanders for partisan advantage, & Dems in power should pass fair legislative maps
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
6 Apr
Colorado (Dem-run of course) is arguably the best state for making it easy to vote. They have automatic & same-day voter registration, universal vote-by-mail, & numerous countywide vote centers where any person in a county may vote in-person on Election Day or during early voting
Gerrymandering hasn't gotten as much publicity in 2021 yet as GOP voting restrictions have, but another biggie is Colorado has independent redistricting commissions while Georgia GOP is about to viciously gerrymander again. CO stands head & shoulders above GA for fair elections
CO vs GA voting law

CO registration deadline Election Day; GA 28 days prior
CO requests (non-photo) ID, not requires; GA strictly requires photo ID
CO votes near 100% by mail, so voting lines are nonexistent; GA must request mail vote
CO lets probation/parolees vote;, GA doesn't
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
26 Mar
Grotesque. Michigan GOP has won gerrymandered majorities despite Dems getting more votes this whole decade. Thus, GOP lawmakers can just pass new voting limits ahead of Whitmer's 2022 election if activists gather ballot measure signatures, no public vote needed or veto possible
Michigan voters approved a ballot initiative creating an independent redistricting commission in 2018, but because it won't draw new districts until the 2022 elections, the pernicious effects of two decades of GOP gerrymandering are still being felt & undermining democracy
Fortunately, though, one huge difference between right now & previous years is that Dems gained a 4-3 majority on the state Supreme Court in 2020, which could then use the voting rights protections found in the state constitution to strike down new voting restrictions
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
25 Mar
Georgia state House GOP passed a sweeping new voting restriction bill. Among its many provisions, it tries to force more people to vote in person by making it harder to vote by mail & also makes it a crime to give food & water to voters standing in line. Just blatant suppression
Georgia Republicans could not be more blatant with their intent to deter Black voters from voting
The most prominent Democratic election lawyer in the country promises a lawsuit once Georgia Republicans pass their new voting restriction bill
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
4 Mar
BREAKING: House Dems just passed the most important democracy reform bill since the 1965 Voting Rights Act!

#HR1 enacts sweeping new voting protections, bans congressional gerrymandering, & adopts public campaign financing. See the major provisions here: dailykos.com/stories/2021/3…
These reforms are critical for protecting our democracy from an increasingly authoritarian Republican Party that uses gerrymandering & voter suppression to entrench white minority rule. The Senate absolutely must curtail the filibuster & pass #HR1 dailykos.com/story/2021/2/2…
If Senate Democrats don't curtail the filibuster to pass #HR1, Dems can kiss their House majority goodbye in 2022 since Republicans will be able to draw 2-3 times as many congressional districts as Dems unless #HR1 becomes law & bans House gerrymandering dailykos.com/story/2020/11/…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
24 Feb
NEW: Democrats in Congress must pass major new election reforms to save democracy from an increasingly radical GOP. Dems have a historic chance to pass the biggest expansion of voting access since the Voting Rights Act, a ban on gerrymandering, & more dailykos.com/stories/2021/2…
In reaction to 2020 Dem wins, Republicans are advancing new voting restrictions in AZ, GA, FL, IA, TX, & more states.

Only congressional action is guaranteed to block these voter suppression measures & protect voting access. Dems must pass #HR1 & the John Lewis Voting Rights Act
Following the 2020 elections, Republicans are poised to dominate redistricting by drawing 2-3 times as many House districts as Dems, leading to another decade of biased maps.

Congressional Dems must pass #HR1 & ban House gerrymandering once & for all dailykos.com/stories/2021/2… ImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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