New stuff I learned in year of Covid-19.

This is my father's favorite question, what did you learn this week, month, year? Helps internalize learning.

The promised professional version.
Figured how to sound proof office library and turn it into a recording studio.

@MasterMoltyFoam sheets. Cut into squares and rectangles with ridges etched into them.

Tried a recording box but that just deadened sound.

The key is reflecting surfaces. Find them. Kill them.
You don't have to stick them on the walls or roof. Tried that, didn't work.

Spread the foam squares on your table, edges and corners and it works just as well.
@rodemics are the best. A big step up from all the microphones we had tried in the past.

With the new setup sound quality improved dramatically.

Went from this from a few years ago.

You can hear the echo and feedback from our very bad mic.
To this. Dec '20 for #021Disrupt product launch lessons.

Delivery still sucks since technology can't fix everything but sound quality is better.

Will take delivery that sucks with better sound quality any day of the week.

Work on delivery this year.
From last month at @HabibUniversity. Getting better slowly but still a long way to go.

Talking about things you care about helps. Also practice, early mornings and not being in Covid recovery weeks.

Went from zero on IFRS 17 to disclosures, financial impact assessment + transition mapping IFRS 4 => IFRS 17.

Key takeaway. How do you handle IFRS 4 DAC (Deferred Acquisition Cost) under IFRS 17 for life products?

They don't cover that in @YouTube videos. If you get stuck DM me
I had learnt this earlier but had to be reminded again this year.

I hate doing regulatory disclosure work. There is more to life than being an Appointed actuary.

Turnarounds and strategy are fun. Building disclosures out of millions of records of badly structured data is not.
In distance running you run faster with legs. Different from sprinting.

Focus on stride lengths rather than arm action to increase pace.

Mileage matters.

There is a magical moment between 8 and 10k where true pace comes to you and carries you all the way to 15k. Image
You also run faster with training maturity as you grow older.

Ran the fastest 5k and 15k this year post Covid-19 as a 50 year old compared to 3 years ago as a 47 year old.

As I said, mileage, form and technique matters. You can beat age over the head with them.
I can still be a good teacher without being a total hard ass about it.

Covid messes up with mental health of my students.

They don't need me going all Freddy Krueger on them.
Sold more digital books via @Twitter thanks to @dvassallo

Give before you ask.
Deliver value before you sell.
Stick to spaces where you have credibility.
Your feed is your portfolio. Don't abuse it.

Also good for building an audience and racking up twitter impressions. Image
Ten year track record. 50k Twitter impressions in a good year before a follower sent me to @dvassallo.

Now half a million impressions is doable when I want it.

Doesn't come easy. You need to put your heart and soul into it, but now I have the formula and know how to use it. Image
With the right audience mix, organic @Twitter conversion is significantly better than @LinkedIn or @Facebook

Source: Founder Puzzle launch, August 2020. Image
I am not going to sell a million copies of my books this year. Or next year for that matter.

If you want to sell a million copies look up @RyanHoliday Perennial Sellers.

If I can't get mine, the least I can do is help Ryan get his.

Twitter threads rock. I did a lot of them last year. Beats blogging any day of the week.

Put some of them here for safe keeping and easy access.

Still don't know if there is an easier way of doing this.

financetrainingcourse.com/education/2020…
Remote teaching and using the stylus on my touch screen for 6 hours a day leads to inflamed shoulder joints, tendinitis and months of pain.

Need to get back to real world in class teaching otherwise will have to quit teaching permanently.
Simpler themes, faster pages, smaller servers.

@awscloud is getting pricey and expensive. Nothing comes close to their service quality and trust factor compared to their competition but need to optimize sites and servers to reduce hosting bills.
Building Bitcoin price models is more fun than reserving insurance liabilities.

Unfortunately reserving insurance liabilities pays the bills. So I am going to be stuck doing that for a while. Image
Which reminds me. Teaching is the best way of learning new things.

As I update and refresh my courses, I learn stuff I didn't know before.

I had done bitcoin outlook but never tried my hand at modeling bitcoin prices. Done and dusted this year.
financetrainingcourse.com/education/2020…
For small businesses in frontier markets valuations are still a function of revenues and profitability.

Founders value IP differently than buyers which leads to disconnects in the acquisition process.

If you want better pricing, focus on higher growth, margins and topline.
There are a few light years between putting together a pitch deck and closing an investment round, an exit or an acquisition.

It doesn't work the way we read about it in Wall Street Journal or see in movies.

Put yourself in cold storage tank when the deal is in the wind.
The best way of closing a deal is to not want it. Lower temperatures lead to better conversations.
Here is more conversion data from Founder Puzzles launch sequence broken down by Pre-orders, actual orders and land page clicks.

@Twitter is the clear winner. Image
What gets measured improves.

True for traffic, impressions, orders, revenues, pace, running and life. ImageImage

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More from @rebootdude

29 Apr
In the modeling world we use a term marking a model to market.

If you have a pricing model and use that to estimate price of a security, how far off are your estimates compared to the market?

The mismatch between the model price and the market price is your model error. Image
With some models we let the error ride. With others we need to calibrate it down to zero.

A family of models where the pricing model is calibrated to match current market prices is called an arbitrage free model.

Remember the BTC model we built a few days ago. Not arb-free. Image
You can see the fit is not strong. There is a significant mismatch between actual market prices and model prices.

Here are two variations of the same model with market price calibration related adjustments. Still not arbitrage free, but much better fit. Image
Read 7 tweets
28 Apr
Your competition is not your peer group.

It is some random kid in a random corner of the world who will out work, out think and out smart you, move for move.

Without either of you being aware of each others existence.

Till the day you come face to face and drop the match point
I haven't found an easy way of explaining this to the talent I work with.

I have to beat it into them.

Junior national champions on tartan track, road runner, graduate and undergraduate students, founders, established tech company CEOs.

It is not enough to win locally.
Even if you win the local game, one day you will have to step outside.

Or the random kid will show up on your home field and show you how to really play the game.

The only way to beat him or her, when that happens is to keep on improving your game.
Read 6 tweets
28 Apr
Happy birthday @AminFarid14 and @fawzia71

Here is a walk down memory lane with our school drives play list.

1 - I want to talk about me.

Our favorite - the one that mama and I always loved playing. Still do.

2- I hope you dance -
And now for one of your. The one that was too loud for us but you eventually won us over.

3 - Gotta be somebody

Read 7 tweets
27 Apr
What is the 3rd moment? The @GoldmanSachs question that floored me 23 years ago.

Let's say you are modeling Bitcoin prices. You want to get a better sense of how much prices can move in a given day.

You have the price series. You calculate daily price changes. You plot both. Image
It is a good first step, better than raw data but you can do better than this.

You use the Excel function to organize daily price changes into something more meaning full.

You organize, bucket and plot the daily price change frequency and end up with a histogram. Image
You now have a sense of the most common change (between -1% and 2.6%) and the extreme changes (-14% and 15.5%)

The histogram is a plot of this table. A ordered tabulation of the price change series that you had calculated above.

The both describe the statistical distribution Image
Read 29 tweets
27 Apr
In recruiting the person sitting on the other side can tell when you don't want the job.

I have only interviewed a few time for roles as a prospective employee. In tech, banking and consulting.

I have interviewed many times more as an employer in tech, sales and consulting.
Here is a stroll down memory lane for those who are still looking for roles in a really hard year.

Interviewed with 2 leading consulting firms. One in Boston, one in New York.

Loved the one in NYC. Got the offer.

Didn't care about the one in Boston. Didn't get the offer.
A year earlier had interviewed with @GoldmanSachs in London for a pre-MBA internship. They picked four of us across Europe and Asia for London.

I had fallen in love with modeling by then. Yet tripped on a basic question. How would you explain 3rd moment to your grandmother?🤦
Read 15 tweets
26 Apr
This summer marks my 34th year of playing with numbers.

As an actuary, a model builder, a computer science and computational finance specialist.

My first model, 1988. A financial model on a Lotus 123 spreadsheet.

I was a teenage intern at Next Hardware Shop. Image
3 internships had seen me grow from answering phones, filing paperwork to being useful when I was not blowing up power supplies.

To be honest I was replicating a paper model on Lotus 123. Not rocket science but linking cells on a screen was more fun than stuff I had done before.
Across 3 decades, I have realized that us quantitative types often keep equations in our head that drive our behavior, our responses, our actions.

Good old give and take. I will put this much effort in, I will get this much back. Plus, minus.

It makes us transactional beings.
Read 16 tweets

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