1/10
This makes for the saddest reading this year. For a number of reasons which I will articulate;
(i) Politicization & weaponizing of statistics
(ii) Technocrats reduced to water carriers.
2/10
The herald editorial makes all sorts of claims, as does many analysts given the reduction in inflation from 837.5% to 194.7% in seven months.
The editorial is dangerous. As it removes economic statistics from the realm of economics to the realm of politics.
3/10
Having failed to economically change the structural issues in the economy it seems the new strategy is to fix the output numbers. So politicians can claim success of “single digit” inflation.
The veneer becomes the perfect. This is dangerous in Economics.
4/10
In Economics, inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. It’s directly linked to money supply.
The weaponization of statistics is when you have an editorial of April 2021 inflation but zero context to April 2021 money supply.
The last published RBZ report was Dec 2020
5/10
The editorial decouples inflation from its economic direct relationship with money supply.
Nkosana Moyo asks the question if the end justifies means. The Herald & GOZ seem to think so.
Nkosana argues this is dangerous because the ends will corrupt the system.
6/10
When you’ve 500% money supply increases, a fixed exchange rate, falling wages, negative real interest rates, declining inflation becomes a cause of great concern. And not a cause for celebration.
You cannot destroy economic relationships for political expediency.
7/10
The idea of technocrats in government & cabinet plays directly into Nkosana’s argument of political management of dissent. To see Prof Ncube reduced to water carrying is a dangerous precedent for our state & future generations.
8/10
What does it say about the 5 & now 7 non voted technocrats?
What does it say about the idea of the technocratic national transitional Authority? Where supposedly technocrats can lead us to nirvana. Or the Church’s political sabbath? Or ED’s presidential advisory council?
9/10
It all speaks to the same thing. Technocrats are water carriers for politicians in Zim. Unless the politics changes, technocrats will do the bidding of their political masters.
10/10
The herald editorial is an epitaph of technocrats in GOZ. How does a PAC member tell the president fixing exchange rate doesn’t work? That expropriation of export receipts to subsidize imports is dangerous?
Dr Gono went through the same. It ended badly. A lesson lost.
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On this thread I will restrict the contents to understanding the economics of trade. Which is vastly different from the politics & law of trade.
What politicians think trade is has little relation with what trade is actually about.
2/23
For example politicians the world over will speak of trade deficit & surplus as bad or good thing. Directing policy for this intended good & away from the bad. Yet the economic truth is a deficit or surplus is a meaningless description of movement or goods & services
3/23
The consumers & economies of the deficits OR surplus are better off with the trade than without.
Without the trade, consumers won’t receive cheaper prices & capital won’t receive higher interest. But politics is the art of weaponizing ideas to get votes.
There is nothing new about the FX auction system. The murmurs of discontent are only a symptom of what is wrong with the economic governance. That an importer is subsidized & exporter punished is at the crux of the economic thinking in government. Dishing out expensive favours.
That Mthuli lied in broad daylight about the FX fixed rate reveals his lack of empathy with tobacco producers many of whom face USD costs entirely.
Mangudya’s remarks are very welcome. They lay to bare the stupidity of the policy that kills the golden goose.
If importers were to pay 130 for FX, they would need to work extra hard to sell. Pricing is merely a signal of consumer demand. Interfering with the price mechanism means 3 things;
i. Misallocation of resources from investment to consumption
ii. Massive speculation binge
1/7 ED Mnangagwa’s vision is to be a middle income country by 2030.
What does that actually mean? How does that vision translate to strategic intent and objectives.
GOZ has an empty promise therefore the empty rhetoric & consequentially violation of economic principles.
2/7 Peter Drucker notes leaders are not in control of the universe. Hesiod the Greek poet in 7BC discovered scarcity.
If a leader can’t control & he has very little, in Economics all his decisions have a trade off. An opportunity lost/cost. By hunting you forgo farming harvest.
3/7
More guns less bread. So the price of a gun is the many loaves of bread that could have fed the nation.
You can’t have it both ways. When you consume you don’t invest. When you invest, you forgo consumption.
1/10
It is absolutely necessary as citizens we never tire of highlighting the policy flaws. We made the emphatic point many times, that ZWL is being created to buy US at the fixed auction.
Belatedly, RBZ seems to have taken notice of this. The apparent speculation & arbitrage.
2/10
Money supply of ZWL has been increasing at 315% by Nov 2020. Most of this ZWL finds its way to the fixed Auction rate. Giving importers a 40% discount.
ZWL “productive loans” are less than 40% p.a when inflation is at 322%.
This creates the perfect arbitrage.
3/10
The arbitrage is not only with importers. The speculation goes further in the market. Eg a firm/individual can buy steel/gas/ non perishables priced at 83 & simply hold the stock. When shortages arise, or when the inevitable devaluation occurs they’ll offload at a profit.