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27 Apr, 20 tweets, 9 min read
Ethereum, The Triple Halving

My report on the investment case for $ETH is finally finished.

It is 79 pages long, my pride and joy, the cumulative product of years of learning and a week of insane effort.
The impetus for this piece realizing that my thread on the $ETH triple halving was mostly interpreted as a nice meme-able crypto pump.

The triple halving may become a meme, but there is a serious investment case here.

I put everything I had into this piece. As a retail investor, I want to use this report to show how much I’ve learned about investing and share my current highest conviction idea. If I’m capable of writing institutional grade research - this is it.
My intended audience for this report is the experienced, non-crypto native investors that I’ve spent the last 12 months learning from in podcasts such as @vol_christopher, @RaoulGMI , @LynAldenContact , @profplum99 , @GestaltU , @Ksidiii , @MacroOps, and @jam_croissant.
However, I believe my take, coming from outside the crypto space, should still offer a unique angle for experienced $ETH and $BTC investors like @iamDCinvestor , @RyanSAdams , @APompliano , and @100trillionUSD
In this report, I will argue that structural flow dynamics around $ETH upcoming shift to ETH2.0 will cause ETH's realized volatility over the next 18 months to exceed already unprecedented levels.
In doing so, I hope to convince you that Ethereum offers far and away the best risk-adjusted returns of any asset for the next 18 months.
This is NOT a report where I explain how cryptocurrency works or why you should believe in it will change the world. Ask cryptocurrency experts like @BanklessHQ or @APompliano about that.
This is a report for institutional investors, characterizing $ETH attributes as an investable asset over the next 18 months, regardless of beliefs on the future of #DeFi.
I will begin by introducing a flows-based theory of asset prices constructed from the lessons learned from @vol_christopher , @jam_croissant , @SqueezeMetrics , @choffstein , and @nope_its_lily and demonstrate it with equity case studies. (p.6-20)
Then, I’ll apply this flows-based framework to understand how the observed price action in $BTC halving event relates to identifiable structural, systematic, and discretionary supply and demand flows. (p.20-26)
Next, I’ll identify key attributes of Ethereum’s upcoming Triple Halving event that will magnify the liquidity constraints and demand inflows to $ETH in the next 18 months relative to prior $BTC Halving cycles. (p.27-54)
I will then review multiple approaches to valuing $ETH in the context of these flow dynamics, explain why they all use misguided $BTC analogies that will break later this year, and suggest a $150,000 PT for Ethereum in the next 18 months. (p.54-69)
I will end by giving my 2 cents on speculative cryptocurrency debates and the future of the space, give some advice regarding investing or trading $ETH, and make some fun, falsifiable predictions about $ETH and $BTC over the next 18 months. (p.70-79)
For investors without time to read the full report, here is my 1 page case

If you would like to read the full report, here is a link.

I’ll tweet it out in small, digestible, ELI5 threads over the coming weeks and months to spur discussion and crowdsource issues with my analysis.

If you the reader know of fund managers off of twitter who would enjoy reading or discussing this report, please share it. My email is in the description, and I would love to see this report circulated as far as possible.
@RaoulGMI - If you read the report and find it valuable, consider it barter for a RV sub. I’m a huge fan and the subscription is a great investment, but as a med trainee, I can’t afford it. If you could get me a subscription, I promise I’d use it well. If not, no hard feelings!
Also, if you find this kind of research interesting, please consider subscribing to my substack.

I’ll write whenever time crops up, but every now and then ideas explode from within me like this one, and you’ll never miss it in your inbox when it does.
One last thing - if you would have paid for a research report like this, consider donating the amount to @AustinSpeechLab, a non-profit that my mom started to provide intensive speech therapy to stroke survivors

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More from @SquishChaos

25 Apr
Investment report all set for release Tuesday.

I’ll drop a thread accompanied by a ~75 page PDF with my best attempt at an institutional grade investment case for $ETH to 150k.

Will follow it up in coming weeks with smaller, digestible ELI5 threads to spur discussion.
Warning! this is not your crypto investor’s $ETH thesis. I’m taking a different angle, tackling difficult concepts to present the most robust institutional grade case that I can.
For me this is my attempt to show all that I’ve self-taught on investing before I head to medical residency. I think you’ll really enjoy it!
Read 11 tweets
17 Apr
“Net annual buy pressure” doesn’t make the point.

In a halving event, $BTC miner sell pressure drops 50%. It causes all hell to break loose. What will this look like for $ETH?
Post-merge, $ETH sell pressure will drop 90%. For $BTC sell pressure to reduce this much, it takes 3 halving events. I’ll repeat:

ETH will undergo the equivalent of 3 halving events in the next 12 months.
Illiquidity breeds volatility, and more illiquidity breeds more volatility. Post-merge, expect $ETH to have 3 halving events of volatility in 1 cycle.
Read 6 tweets

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