The Census confirms what we already basically knew: stalling population growth. Especially striking if you look at prime working years 1/
But isn't less population pressure on the environment a good thing? Yes, in some ways. But given how we run our economy, two big problems. First, fewer workers to take care of seniors 2/
Second, reduced investment demand, which pushes interest rates down, which in turn makes it hard to fight recessions (10-year rate minus 3-year average core inflation) 3/
Public investment can help with the second point, but not the first. If only there were lots of young working-age people outside the US eager to move here ... 4/
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The GOP response to Biden's speech decried "the biggest job-killing tax hikes in a generation," presumably a ref to the 1993 Clinton tax hike, after which we ... added 23 million jobs 1/ nytimes.com/2021/04/29/us/…
Obama also substantially increased taxes in 2013, after which we ... gained 10 million more jobs 2/
Fwiw, this may represent genuine ignorance. Many GOP figures seem unaware that anything good happened between Reagan and Trump. After all, who that they listen to will tell them? 3/
This gets at a broader thing I've been noticing since Bush: the demand that hacks and thugs be granted an unearned presumption of dignity because of the office they hold 1/
Once upon a time it was "how dare you suggest that THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES" is leading us to war on false pretenses 2/
Under Trump it was "how dare you suggest that THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES" is betraying the nation to Putin, and lining his own pocket at taxpayer expense 3/
Tempted to say "Hey, I never ignored it." But when I published The Age of Diminished Expectations in 1990, the editors wanted me to remove the chapter on soaring inequality, saying that nobody cared 1/
That said, international trade economists were very aware of inequality as an issue in the 90s, because we had a model — Stolper-Samuelson — that told us to worry, and a fact — rising imports of manufactures from developing countries — that played right into that model 2/
In retrospect, too much focus on college-noncollege gap and not on wider issues, but some of us were well aware of those too. I talked about the 1% in that 1990 book 3/
One thing I haven't seen pointed out much as the vaccination campaign moves forward is that this is a rare case in which individual decisions about whether to act responsibly are crucial to the outcome 1/
On issues like climate change, personal decisions are of marginal importance: we can't save the planet by persuading more people to paper instead of plastic or eat less meat. It's almost all about public policy 2/
But on vaccines, it's rapidly becoming clear that the crucial question isn't how many vaccines we can supply, it's how many people are willing to take them. Individual choices to be irresponsible and not take the shots may have catastrophic effects 3/
Thinking some more about this: what do consumer expectations about inflation really tell us? The answer is, they're mainly about the *current* price of oil 1/
One interpretation is that when people answer questions about inflation, they're really telling the survey whether they think the cost of living is currently high. In any case, consumer inflation expectations obviously haven't been a good predictor 3/