OnlyFans 2020 numbers:
• Revenue grew +553% to $391 million
• Users grew 5x from 20 million to 120 million
• Over 300 creators made more than $1 million
OnlyFans' success is a fascinating combination of business model innovation & the desire for online belonging.
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OnlyFans' business model lets creators stitch together subscriptions, tipping, & microtransactions.
Creators can send out locked DMs that look like personal messages, but are sent en masse to thousands of subscribers. One message can earn a creator thousands of dollars.
Locked DMs are a way for creators to earn income at scale and for subscribers to feel personally connected to the creator.
@lucymort_ calls this “the commodification of intimacy.” Online relationships with OnlyFans creators can become replacements for real-life intimacy.
Earlier this year, I interviewed OnlyFans creator @jasminericegirl. She said:
"I’d only ever made money as a creator by tweeting sponsored content. A brand might pay me $25. In my first week on OnlyFans, I got over 100 subscribers and made over $1,000." digitalnative.substack.com/p/an-interview…
It’s important to note that OnlyFans is more than just a business model: it’s the livelihood for millions of sex workers (especially during the pandemic), who have been historically stigmatized & exploited
Though people like Cardi B are on OnlyFans, it remains ~98% adult content
Like other internet platforms, OnlyFans has let creators capture value more directly from fans. Cam sites, for instance, typically take an 80% while OnlyFans takes 20%.
It's important to remember that business model decisions made by platforms affect people's lives.
The desire for online connection embodied by OnlyFans shows up elsewhere: TikTok trends, mukbangs, Discord servers, "Just Chatting" being the most popular category on Twitch.
Digital belonging is particularly sought at a time when people are isolated in the real world.
The future of the internet, in many ways, looks like OnlyFans:
• More direct connections between creators and fans
• Business models that stitch together multiple income streams and let creators better earn a living
• The urge for intimacy, connection, and belonging online
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1/ It's 1995. Netscape is the dominant browser. Your laptop costs $6,000. The World Wide Web has 16M users.
And GeoCities is the 3rd-most-popular website in the world.
"Community" is again becoming the defining word of the internet. In many ways, community began with Geocities.
2/ GeoCities helped people discover the internet & find like-minded people online with "Neighborhoods"
GeoCities had 28 neighborhoods built around interests, like Area51 for sci-fi & fantasy and Hot Springs for health & wellness.
Early web users found community & belonging.
3/ In 1995, Bill Gates said: "The internet is becoming the town square for the global village of tomorrow."
Before Google & search, GeoCities helped people understand online community through the familiar paradigms of neighborhoods and, within neighborhoods, blocks.
1/ Survey of Gen Zs—66% prioritize financial stability over doing something they enjoy. This is a pretty stunning reversal from the Millennial mindset.
We're seeing the ripple effects of a generation that grew up during the financial crisis.
(Source: XYZ University)
2/ In David Brooks' words:
“Children can now expect to have a lower quality of life than their parents, the pandemic rages, climate change looms, & social media is vicious. Their worldview is predicated on threat, not safety.”
3/ This worldview built on threat instead of on safety is clearest in young people's distrust of institutions & companies.
Many watched their parents work within “the system” and be promised good lives and stable jobs—only to be laid off during the recession or pandemic.
1/ I continue to think that Baby Boomers are tech's most underserved demographic. Huge market + decades-long tailwinds.
Every day, 10,000 people in the US turn 65. By 2040, 1 in every 5 Americans will be over 65, and 50% of the population is already over 50.
2/ Baby Boomers are already the wealthiest generation in history, collectively earning double that of the “Silent Generation” above them. Boomers control 70% of U.S. disposable income and 50% of U.S. consumer spending dollars.
Yet just ~5% of advertising dollars target Boomers.
3/ And they're underratedly tech-savvy.
Boomers make up a third of all internet users, 90% have a computer, and 70% have a smartphone.
30 million US Boomers call themselves “heavy Internet users"—roughly defined as using the Internet for 15 hours or more each week.