$CS Capstone Santo Domingo project:
When we probably face a very strong price cycle I like mines with many different metals where 1-2 are treated as offsetting credit on cost.
What you get then is basically both higher metal price AND lower cost (due to more valuable credit).
SD in Chile looks Great... but the point is that it could be much better than that. It could be profitable like few other copper mines because it is:
Copper (3 vs 4.5) +
- Top Q 65% iron ore (80 vs 220)
- World class cobalt (20 vs 25)
- Gold (cashed to build mine)
- Sulphur
So this is the starting point and then you can start the fun of thinking where the cash cost would be if for example iron ore holds up reasonable. Know that 65% iron ore is premium vs the good stuff (62%).
So look at the prices for iron ore, not the 3.3m ton initial annual production and them having that counted as 80 usd and compare to today 65%: custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
100 usd extra or 330m usd per year cuts the 263m annual copper's cost profile by over a dollar
The value of sulphur was touched upon in a great comment I would also point you to think the thought of what 5% of current world production of cobalt is worth to the West when most now is from Congo and semi Chinese controlled. And perhaps think: Battery stream company buying it?
Capstones $CS Santo Domingo is perfectly situated within Chile, cutting costs through harbor deal and IMO you get it for free as the rest of the company is at 6.4x earnings with long life and a huge growth story itself (more on that to come).
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
What I have learned over the years is that good companies are often better than they look and bad companies are often worse than they look.
I have presented the case with SD for Capstone but when you look at this chart and see the potential of 440m pounds (everything under 70%
kept share of SD is old and unrealistic imo) And this possibly at a total cashcost of zero if iron ore, cobalt, sulphur & silver stays strong... but understand that from my listening of conf calls I think some serious growth through aquisition of old closed assets from majors is
brewing in Capstone. In fact the CEO put it something like this: Those negotiations and SD production decision is the most important for 2021.
The majors have no mill and assets are too small for them but for CS it could AGAIN be transformational... and again.. you get this free
I have my reward scenario for $OET somewhere around divs 50nok per year etc. My $OET risk thinking beyond Nov21 (if a worst case scenario hits) is like this:
17 ships
4 VLs can stay fixed 3y more and the rates incr 18k total 2m out from now.
1 more VL is fixed at 46k 2y more
2 Smaxes fixed at 29k 2y
So 8 of 17 can (but does not have to) stay fixed to protect.
Remaining (from Nov) 9 ships are ECO & scrubber with about a 10k advantage so if standard ships earn zero they earn 10k.
Then you basically have another 10k above cost from the 8 fixed
So combine the ECO with what comes from 8x profit ships and you will break even at 0 rate environment
But then you also have the fact that OETs ships are so attractive that they can always do a decent deal on a ship covering that ships cost. Negotiation is mostly how long time
Quite amazing and I can only repeat: Bullish for all the other parts of shipping as: 1. Yard capacity fills up 2. Yards no longer feel the need to do lossmaking deals
Yesterday I was unfortunately subject to a lot of aggression at a SA forum I am member of as well as from a new Twitter account that later was either deleted or taken down (not cause of me)
I did a number of blockings of the people that posted, liked & I hold responsible
Not fun
I really like Twitter and if it was their system that identified and removed a new account that was only bullying, then that was impressive.
The SA forum I have boycotted (writing) for months to make it super clear that it was not an "argument" but simply.. bullying.
Going back 10m or so my idea was that I wanted to own #2020Bulkers for the post covid world wide stimulus benefitting iron ore & steel, my guess was that Q2 2021 was the time for cape rates to strengthen. The stock has already doubled incl divs as it traded so much below NAV then
My other even larger holding was $OET with the thought rates would strengthen in Q4 2021 on a revival of flying. I also expected the ECO advantage to increase with higher oilprice and the fuel spread to widen with less plane fuel blendstock available. After large divs my $OET
cost is below 50nok so at least a 50% gain.
Its been a generally good shipping market in Q1 2021, for me almost 60% on the portfolio. But I think it is also fair to make the point again that markets are forward looking.
A TW quote on container NB going crazy
New wide-beam panamaxes between 5,5k teu and 7k teu, as they are flexible to trade The NBs will also be used to replace existing 4,250-teu ships
“The old panamax boxships were built more than 15 years ago and they are not fuel-efficient
Twitter investors with 15y old panamax container ships told that they would do super profits until 30y old...
$DAC has basically said they will not do large divs as they have to fix their old ECO fleet, invest current profits in it to improve ECO features. Lots of dry dock, lots of costs. $NMM, well we all know that they are incentivized to buy ships, not do divs. Flawed alignment.
If all main quality yards for large ships are full with mainly container orders until end of 2023. What capacity is left? I am no expert but this is how I understand it: 1. More large containers and bulkers can be built at 2nd tier yards as these are not that complicated ships.
2. We are NOT talking about yards filling up for smaller ships and I need to learn more about where the size limits are Now thinking Smax, VL, Capes, 10kTEU LNG VLGCetc as large impacted by the situation 3. Besides size there is the issue of some ship types being more complicated
Meaning it is only those top tier yards that now are full until end of 2023 that build them. The interesting stuff is that these are also the only yards that can build LNG ships and have the huge 160 ship order from Qatar 2023-2026 build time.