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Nate Cohn Profile picture
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28 Apr, 5 tweets, 2 min read
It's 2028. Kamala Harris loses the election by the margin of... 89 census takers in New York and Minnesota
It's a tough map to pull off, but there are a few other ways to get there (if Dems get 269 and MN is red, then Democrats lost by the margin of MN getting the final vote over NY)
Best effort yet
The one that would really hurt
There are all sorts of ways to get a tie without a red Minnesota, but only a red Minnesota lets the NY--> MN electoral vote, which was decided by a handful of people in the census, decide the election

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
29 Apr
New census data on 2020 turnout is out:
White, non-Hispanic share of the electorate drops to 71 percent from 73.3 in 2016
Black share of the electorate drops slightly, from 12.4 to 12.3 percent
Hispanic share increases to 10.6 from 9.2 percent
Demographic change was the main driver of the shift.
The turnout rate among non-Hispanic white voters increased by 5.6 points, slightly above the 5.4 point national average
Black turnout rate increased by just 3.2 points
Hispanic turnout rate increased by 6.1 points
Here's the change in the white share of the electorate, by state.
State data is pretty noisy, don't interpret the details!
One preemptive example: it's likely the white share of the electorate declined slightly in both PA/MI, rather than big drop in one and increase in the other Image
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
29 Apr
A nice FiveThirtyEight summary of some of the various GOP electoral biases, which were quite extreme in 2020 and could conceivably get worse
(by their definition, the GOP E.C. edge grew from 3.5 to 3.9 points with the new population figures on Monday)
fivethirtyeight.com/features/advan…
One minor thing: just because something is biased doesn't mean it's counter-majoritarian. The House is conceived to reflect majority will. The Electoral College is complicated, but it's not really counter-majoritarian and to the extent it is, that's not why it's biased
The Senate, on the other hand, really is designed to check the majority (the extent that's good or bad is another question, ofc).
What's fascinating is that the Senate, EC and House are all similarly biased against Dems, despite being intended to be biased in very different ways
Read 6 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
23 Apr
Important @rickhasen piece on the growing danger of election subversion, which has been painfully overlooked in recent months
He offers a few possible actions Congress might consider:
--ensure paper balloting
--fix the electoral count act
--impose basic safeguards on vote counting
--support local election administration
My sense is that this is probably only the start of the conversation on how to address these kind of issues.
Progressives have spent years thinking about expanding voter access. Few people have spent time any time thinking about election subversion
Read 5 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
19 Apr
The rise of political sectarianism is a growing threat to American democracy
nytimes.com/2021/04/19/us/…
I'm a little surprised this concept hasn't already taken off! There was a paper in Science by a lot of prominent political scientists last fall. It deserves a book--it's a clarifying lens for thinking about America today--so I'm giving it an article
pcl.stanford.edu/research/2020/…
In recent news, I think sectarianism helps make sense of the declining role of policy debate in sustaining partisan conflict. It's hard to make sense of, say, Dr. Seuss or Rubio on Amazon unionization unless you put intergroup hostility at the center of politics
Read 9 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
16 Apr
One thing about Democratic gains in the Sun Belt and Republican gains in the Rust Belt is that it's at least beginning to upend the 2010-era story about gerrymandering, redistricting, and the Democratic 'geographic' disadvantage in the House
From 2010-2014, the main story about the Democratic disadvantage in the House centered on purple/blue states where Democrats faced a two part problem: Republican gerrymandering and a Democratic 'geographic' inefficiency problem
The geograhpic problem was simple: in the blue/purple states, Obama's strength mainly depended on running up the score in areas that were already blue (thus yielding few new D districts), while Republicans won rural/exurban areas narrowly, netting more districts with fewer votes
Read 13 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
6 Apr
What I implied is that new the law probably doesn't increase the length of lines, and could just as easily shorten lines.
I am not implying that lines don't matter to turnout (the article, in fact, says long lines affect turnout), or to human beings
When it comes to the effect on in-person voting, there are provisions cutting in both directions.
An example in the negative direction: ending the Fulton County bus voting stations, which could directly alleviate a problem
An example in the positive direction: expanding early voting days and the provision requiring that large precincts with long lines (over an hour) either add staff, add machines or split apart.
Read 11 tweets

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