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Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
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29 Apr, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Small same day last week increase in #Covid19Ireland positive swabs to 485, that's 106% last Thursday. Quite a large test quantity with low 2.4% positivity & 3 day average in comparison with last week still going down /1 Image
Average of 440 positive swabs over last 3 days is 94% of the same days last week, projects forward as slow reduction
415 wk1 - May 6th
392 wk2
370 wk3
349 wk4
330 wk5 - June 3rd
311 wk6
/2
GP referrals for Monday & Tuesday were up a lot more than the positive swabs coming through yesterday & today from those referrals. Hayfever being one possibility alongside alertness around school outbreaks /3 Image
Now on day 25 of the 42 'vulnerable period ahead' days - plot shows cases up to last night as red dots. As reopening escalates seems likely cases will increase at least for a while but vaccination will outrun them if socialising stays outdoors another two months /4 Image
A running total of positive swabs from Sunday to now has
2161 this week
2158 last week (5 days to last Thursday)
so depending on the next two days Saturdays end of week comparison may even show slight negative growth. Cases tend to lag swabs 1-2 days
Wednesdays GP referral data suggests that tomorrow & Saturdays swabs will be a similar level to the last couple of days - if that holds there will a small decrease in positive swabs this week (to Saturday) as compared with last week /8 Image

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Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
1 May
Looking at the NPHET cabinet briefing slides I'd presume that highlighted construction outbreak with 116 linked cases is the Intel site which was deemed essential back in January Image
The 4101 cases amongst Irish Travellers in the 3rd wave is about 10% of the population, so a rate at least 4-5 times the general population. For 4 weeks Travellers made up over 5% of cases /2 Image
Variant update to the 27th - the missing information here in relation to B1351 is what proportion of the recent 16 are travel related and how many are community in particular of unknown contact. /3 Image
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
30 Apr
Bad news on #Covid19Ireland swabs with a large jump to 658 today, 120% last Friday, close to 3% positivity on 22k tests which gets us back to rising cases but is also highest figure in a month /1 Image
3 day average of swabs now 527, highest in over 3 weeks and 102% of same days last week. Projects as slow increase which if this is a one off high day & not a trend is manageable /2
540 wk1
554 wk2
567 wk3
581 wk4
595 wk5 - May 4
610 wk6
625 wk7
This is more in line which would have been expected from the higher GP referrals for Covid testing throughout the week. Perhaps this is the labs processing a lot of these yesterday - if so less worrying as explainable and reducing? Or big outbreak(s) not coming via that route /3 Image
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
30 Apr
This mornings NISRA weekly deaths bulletin for northern Ireland brings the likely total dying with Covid19 during the pandemic to 2957 or 1569 deaths per million. The equivalent for the south is currently 64% of that at 999 deaths per million /1 Image
The NISRA weekly update appears Fridays dated to previous Friday & captures about 28% more deaths than the Department of Health does. It counts death certs where Covid19 is mentioned as a factor, in last quarterly update it found 88.7% also had Covid19 as underlying cause /2 Image
Excess deaths in comparison with the previous 5 years were again negative this week, the pandemic excess deaths peaked the week ending 26/2/21 at 2,518. That total has fallen since to 2,298 as all but one week since was below the five year average /3 Image
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
29 Apr
The Irish Times has a lot to answer for over that misleading headline - it’s made it a global source of misinformation rather than just a local one. Actual risk ratio is 1 in 19 - there was no need for the wishful thinking exaggeration based on poor understanding
Still has the original headline even after the HSE said this was a misreading of the data - I think in response to a question from an Irish Times journalist. You’d imagine that should have led to a ‘let’s correct the headline & insert a note’ from ‘the paper of record’ Image
The problem Irish Times coverage is not just that it’s sloppy but when they get it wrong the ego bros don’t correct the record. After criticism of that headline Paul Cullen tried to get NPHET to agree & when he failed they immediately printed an article restating misinformation
Read 7 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
28 Apr
Feared surge of #Covid19Ireland positive swabs from Mondays higher GP referrals hasn't materialised today, instead that 439 swabs are only 81% of last Weds. TBH I'm nervous a lab reported late but positivity of 2.1% on 20.5k tests suggests not /1 Image
3 day average of positive swabs at 405 is lowest in a week and 93% of same days last week which takes us back to slowly reducing pos swabs
376 wk1 - May 5th
350 wk2
326 wk3
303 wk4
282 wk5 - June 2nd
262 wk6
/2
24 days into the 42 of the 'vulnerable period ahead' this low for a Wednesday number of swabs and the news of Pfizer delivering 191k vaccines provides hope - plot from last night, I'd expect to add about a 400 case dot tonight and not 600 I feared from Mondays GP data /3 Image
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
27 Apr
Listening to the vaccine misinformation put out unchallenged by IBEC on RTE this morning . While suggesting forcing people back into offices early would be good for their mental health was jaw dropping you do not get 80% of benefit from vaccination with 20% 1st dose /1
Majority of hospitalisations have been under 65s. as are 60% of ICD admissions. Perhaps IBEC only count deaths but a pandemic that only infects those under 65 could still kill a couple of 1000 directly & deny other healthcare to many /2
The reopening has to be cautious and in pace with vaccination until we are heading for 90% fully vaccinated. The north has nearly 50% dose 1, most measures still in place but still only has a slow decline in new cases - we can learn through observing them /3
Read 4 tweets

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