Al-Qaeda is unlikely to direct mass-casualty attacks in the US homeland in 2021 but online communication between AQAP and Pensacola attacker shows the ability of the group to capitalize on opportunities.
Al-Qaeda's appeal to Salafi jihadists has waned due to ISIS, unlikely to change in 2021; Zawahiri remains in hiding (so alive?).
In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda and affiliate AQIS have a marginal role in the Taliban's insurgency; AQIS was weaker than years before due to little discernible activity, has less than 200 fighters; al-Qaeda/AQIS will "bolster its relationship with the Taliban."
In North Africa, AQIM's threat is at its lowest point in a decade; AQIM maintains networks to support JNIM.
In West Africa, terrorist threats continue to expand, JNIM and ISIS continued their attacks, threatened to expand into the coastal countries.
Shabaab poses the "most severe terrorism threat in East Africa"; has 5000 to 10000 fighters and the capability to conduct high-profile attacks in the region, target the US and regional forces. n/n
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.@NicRobertsonCNN & @SaleemMehsud report: "In an exclusive interview...al Qaeda official tells CNN that "war against the US will be continuing on all other fronts unless they are expelled from the rest of the Islamic world."" 1/n cnn.com/2021/04/30/asi…
"...al Qaeda's spokesperson heaps praise on the Taliban for keeping the fight against America alive. "Thanks to Afghans for the protection of comrades-in-arms, many such jihadi fronts have been successfully operating in different parts of the Islamic world for a long time...""
"Through journalistic intermediaries, CNN stringer Saleem Mehsud reached out to al Qaeda for its reaction to Biden's move to pull out troops from Afghanistan, and rather than ignore him as it has done so many times in the past, representatives answered."
.@HamidMirPAK reports: “Top Pakistani security officials have approached Afghan Taliban leadership in Doha and made it very clear to them that...if they will not show some flexibility they will face consequences.” thenews.com.pk/print/827112-e…
“[A] top Pakistani security official will meet Taliban leaders in Doha on April 28 (today) and will deliver an “enough is enough” message to them in very clear words.”
“According to highly placed sources, Pakistani security agencies found some links between Afghan Taliban and groups related to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). A top source said “they are two faces of a same coin”...”
@SenatorMenendez pushing Special envoy Khalilzad on Taliban's stated goal of restoring an Islamic emirate. Khalilzad saying the Taliban might be dissuaded by the opposition of fellow Afghans.
.@MittRomney asks has the Taliban upheld the Feb 2020 Doha agreement. Khalilzad says the Taliban has honored the agreement on not attacking US forces.
Khalilzad says there have been "positive developments" on Taliban commitment to not let the use of Afghan territory for international terrorism, but US policymakers are not satisfied, want to see more.
President Biden made the decision of withdrawal on four judgments: 1) degraded al-Qaeda 2) dispersed terrorism landscape 3) status-quo policy is too costly and no gains possible 4) extending stay beyond May 1 would have led to an inexorable return to war with Taliban.
US will reconfigure CT capabilities to work with Afghan security forces and regional partners, and hold the Taliban accountable on ties to al-Qaeda.
In the absence of intra-Afghan agreement, country can fall to the Taliban within 2 or 3 years after a US withdrawal.
Biden admin officials are most sensitive to threats to Afghan women under Taliban. Assessment says initially Taliban won’t roll back rights altogether but once Taliban take over entire country situation will worsen.