RECAP, IN A THREAD—TRADE TRANSPARENCY

1/17 THE MEANING isn’t so clear

With the clamour for reform, #WTOtransparency needs re-examining. @wto and its members should do better

A 4-part analysis with @BobWolfeSPS (+ great photos by @JayLouvion) #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
2/17 Should @wto members pay more attention to external transparency?

Our recommendations are in tweet 16. Our reasons are in the rest of this thread, and the linked pieces.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

SHORT VERSION: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
3/17 TRANSPARENCY

A WTO aim—reliable info about governments’ rules and practices reduces uncertainty about trade.

Also makes taxpayers’ money accountable.

But *occasionally* too much public info can impede work in the WTO

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
4/17 NOT about “comms”.

Pure TRANSPARENCY = straight information

ADVOCACY = stressing the positive

SPIN = manipulative, not always honest—suspect, undermining support

PROMOTING the WTO and DG = Useful? Or a distraction?

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
5/17 EXTERNAL TRANSPARENCY

A large amount of WTO information (news, docs, data) is already public, mainly through the website

But members treat it as an afterthought, a nuisance. More/better public info should be part of #WTOreform.

#WTOtransparency

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
6/17 With 164 members @wto leaks like the proverbial sieve

The Secretariat AND member governments are responsible for WTO info. But what is the division of labour? Are there biases? Secrecy and leaks arouse suspicion

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
7/17 Diverse audience: citizens, lawyers, academics, think-tankers, lobbyists, activists, journalists, politicians, business & industry associations, companies’ trade specialists. The media, NGOs are less interested now.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
8/17 WTO openness is inconsistent—agendas, minutes, proposals/drafts, document categories, website news.

Publicly available texts aren’t always transparent. Dispute rulings are public but incomprehensible legalese.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
9/17 Public info is essential for public support. Secrecy arouses suspicion. Leaking worsens suspicion, and is biased. Leakers have an agenda. They leak to people who help push the agenda. Secretariat info is more neutral.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
10/17 NEGOTIATIONS

Why does the fisheries subsidies chair hold meetings in triplicate—3 on each subject with identical agendas?

FACT: Countries do not negotiate in meetings of the full membership, even behind closed doors

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
11/17 Small, private meetings are needed for real give-and-take. Otherwise negotiators go outside the WTO, even talking directly in capitals. They do already

This has implications for how negotiations are organised and #WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
12/17 When it works, it delivers.

But grandstanding can still happen in small meetings

Now, in 2021, the configurations have become more cumbersome. This affects ministerial conferences, and negotiations meetings in Geneva.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
13/17 DOES TRANSPARENCY HELP OR HINDER?

The evidence is at best contradictory. There are two sides to this coin. One is legitimacy through public support. The other is negotiating efficiency, the ability to reach agreement.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
14/17 To be transparent or not to be? That is not the question. It’s what is “too much”? When/how does it make a difference?

Timing is key. Some parts of a negotiation can be kept confidential, but only for a limited period.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
15/17 But in the end whatever is agreed and how that agreement developed should be made public.

It doesn’t say much about democratic processes if a deal can only be ratified when the public is kept partly in the dark.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
16/17 Our proposals include: rethink WTO documents, more openness with agendas/minutes, members to make more negotiating proposals public, release all chairs’ draft texts, explain dispute rulings for a broader public.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
17/17 All of this began with a Twitter exchange about advice for new recruits.

We might agree with “pick up the phone” when a reporter calls. But we would add: “Don’t answer the question. Pass the call to someone who can”.

#WTOtransparency #WTOreform

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…

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More from @CoppetainPU

26 Apr
NEW with @BobWolfeSPS

Short and long reads on WTO and transparency as part of #WTOreform

It all be began light-heartedly here on trade Twitter. But digging deeper into the topic reveals the complexity. Transparency is more than it seems.

SHORT READ: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
NEW: WTO, trade and transparency, with @BobWolfeSPS

“We have a particular interest in the prospects for successful reform of the WTO and its negotiations. Would more transparency help? Would less?”

LONG READ PART 1 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
…One minister insisted the draft mustn’t be released until approved. Next moment, delegates from that country were in the press room giving copies to favoured journalists…

What does this say about #WTOtransparency? And leaks?

Part 2 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…

With @BobWolfeSPS
Read 4 tweets
24 Apr
COVID-19 IN SWITZERLAND. Week to 24.04.2021—cases up, deaths down

Last easing April 19

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—7479 & 326⬆️
● in hospital—311 & 9⬇️
● deaths—115 & 0.9⬇️

R(e): down—1.0
Vaccinations: 2.3m (823K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/10 Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on reprod...
AND FOR THE PAST FORTNIGHT, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. J&J approved, not ordered. Supply picking up. Not yet approved: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/10 Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of Reproductive ...
VIRUS VARIANTS detected

UK variant dominant

Public Health Office: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
Science Task Force: sciencetaskforce.ch/en/nextstrain-…

3/10 Screenshot of list of varia...Screenshot of graph of esti...Screenshot: Task Force grap...Screenshot: Task Force grap...
Read 10 tweets
17 Apr
COVID-19 IN SWITZERLAND. Week to 17.04.2021—cases up, deaths down

Next easing April 19

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—7315 & 306
● in hospital—305 & 10
● deaths—114 & 1.1

R(e): up—1.14
Vaccinations: 2.0m (733K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/10 Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on reprod...
AND FOR THE PAST FORTNIGHT, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. J&J approved, not ordered. Supply picking up. Approval waiting: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/10 Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of box on lab-co...Screenshot of Reproductive ...
VIRUS VARIANTS detected

UK variant ~80%

Public Health Office: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
Science Task Force: sciencetaskforce.ch/en/nextstrain-…

3/10 Screenshot of list of varia...Screenshot of graph of esti...Screenshot: Task Force grap...Screenshot: Task Force grap...
Read 10 tweets
10 Apr
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 10.04.2021—numbers still rising

Next easing delayed

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6851 & 285
● in hospital—287 & 10
● deaths—111 & 1.4

R(e): down—0.97
Vaccinations: 1.7m (645K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Supply picking up. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccinations and virus variants

“Fully” = 2nd dose
Steady growth, deliveries up
Delivered: 2.2m=26% (from 2.1m)
Administered: 1.7m=20% (from 1.4m)
Fully: 645K=7.5% (from 577K)

UK variant ~80%

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/10 Screenshot of vaccinations data and graphics, past 28 daysChart of development over time of delivered and administeredScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
Read 10 tweets
8 Apr
#TradeNerdsCorner

1. India has notified WTO members that it exceeded its trade-distorting subsidy entitlement for rice in marketing year 2019/20.

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

1/4 Image
Developing countries’ limits for trade-distorting farm support = 10% of value of production.

India’s $6.3bn for rice exceeds the $4.6bn limit (10% of $46bn in footnote 2)

This was for buying into food security stocks, so it escapes legal challenge

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

2/4 Image
#TradeNerdsCorner

2. Did Trump’s subsidies for American farmers exceed US limits in the WTO?

No, says the latest US notification for 2018/19. Total trade-distorting support was $13bn. The limit is $19bn.

Why?

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

3/4 Image
Read 5 tweets
3 Apr
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 03.04.2021—numbers still rise except deaths

Easing delayed

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6851 & 278
● in hospital—287 & 8
● deaths—111 & 1.2

R(e): down—1.12
Vaccinations: 1.5m (577K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Supply picking up. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccinations and virus variants

“Fully” = second dose
Steady growth, deliveries up
Delivered: 2.1m=23.9% (from 1.7m)
Administered: 1.4m=17.8% (from 1.2m)
Fully: 577K=6.7% (from 507K)

UK variant ~80%

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/10 Screenshot of vaccinations data and graphics, past 28 daysChart of development over time of delivered and administeredScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
Read 10 tweets

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