The winner of contract most likely pays 10% of the original 100m to be awarded the contract. That is 10m
project money reduces to 74m.
Because of pending bill problems & also greed, the winner of the contract plans for at least 20% mark up - of the original amount. That is 20m target.
74m less 20m is 54m.
Work that was supposed to be done for 100m is now going to be done using 54m?
Oh wait!
An engineer has to certify that the 54m work is worth in fact worth 100m. Eats 10% of the 54m or no certification. Remember the work is only worth 50m. The guy who is supposed to release the 💰wants his/her share.
In summary, most county projects/assets are worth max 50% of their book value (value recorded in their books). Assume 30% of the 300b annual allocation to counties is used for development. That is 90b. 50% of that is 45b that is not reflected in the projects.
Same happens re the national government projects. Meaning of the 500b or so that goes into national govt dev budget, only around 250b of it ends up as national assets. That is why we are spending a lot of money on devt but the assets on the ground are mediocre. No value for money
We need to stop this madness and come up with a comprehensive framework to deal with this waste. What this means is we are developing at half the pace we should be developing. We are not getting value for our money. We need a solution for this problem!
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Good to see Saudi Arabia at number 3 re remittances to Kenya (after US and UK). Remittances are now number 1 foreign exchange earner for the country. Whereas the US & UK markets have matured, the Saudi & GCC mkts have more capacity for further growth
The market is also not about just domestic workers. We have Kenyan doctors, university lecturers, consultants, bankers, engineers, nurses, hotel managers etc. Kenyan professionals are highly regarded in the region. These lot also are in influential positions to recruit more!
For example, Riyadh is currently in the final stages of putting in place a metro. Some of the key players like Mwangangi, Shaaban & Opondo are Kenyans. These folks also did the Dubai & Qatar metros. They are folks who built a reputation of being able to deliver quality work
1. You are supposed to run smaller deficits in times of growth & run big ones to support the econ during recessionary periods. Jubilee doing the opposite. Taxes might not yield much more revenue but could actually see acceleration of businesses closing down - counterproductive
2. Whereas the govt needs money, from macroeconomic perspective, it doesn't make sense to hike taxes when the economy is flirting with recession. You just might tip it over. We are still in the middle of the pandemic and most governments have extended the Covid support measures
3. For corporates, lower tax measure accorded them some extra headroom which probably went to keep a few more workers employed. For households anyone with a pay cheque has been helping GoK to support others.The extra 5% was like a direct stimuluswith - a huge multiplier effect
1. Some of the BBI amendments cannot even be practically implemented. Let's look at the amendment to article 203 that caps the revenue the county with the highest per capita allocation will get, to 3 times the lowest.
2. Let's use the current allocations of Ksh 316 transferred to counties in 19/21 FY. Tana River & Lamu get the highest per capita allocation of Ksh 18,533 & 18,033 respectively. Nairobi county gets the lowest at Ksh 3,621. Meaning no county should get more than Ksh 10,863.
3. 9 counties in total will be above this threshold and the cap means they would have to surrender Ksh 9.687b. This is where the problems start. First, there is no suggested method to share what will effectively be taken away from these 9 counties.
1. Dear H.E President Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta @StateHouseKenya. In 2022 (in sha Allah), there will be an election & there will be losers & winners, court petitions, riots, teargas not withstanding the fact that BBI will be in place. It is happening even in the USA these days.
2. BB1 will not change that. What BBI will definitely do is to add to our already heavy economic burden. We are already in a difficult situation & it is time to downsize & consolidate. Not a time to create PM office,2 deputies (remember these are not individuals but institutions)
3. It is not also the time to create a 630 bunge & hard code the transfer of 600b we don't have to the counties in the constitution. I am for devolution & I have seen the good stuff it does but the reality is we don't have the money for a bigger government - at both levels
1/ 5. The promise to give counties 600B (35%) is just a pie in the sky promise that will break the country or cause a constitutional crisis in the future. As we speak, we can't afford to pay for both O&M & counties and something may have to give way very soon.
2/5. We can only afford to pay for salaries + dent & O&M or counties. That is why counties have not been paid for the last 3 months & s@$t is about to hit the fan. Those saying this will be possible because more functions will be devolved to the counties are also being dishonest
3/5. First, assuming even there is something (possible) left to be devolved, you will just be transferring the current funding problems to counties. May be that is the objective? counties are not looking for more work, they are looking for more money to do what they currently do!
1. In almost every economy, the government is one of the biggest customers of the private sector for supply of goods & services. The private sector reinvests the money & this helps grow the private sector & the economy & also create sustainable employment for the citizens.
2. Since 2013, trillions of shs in development budget & recurrent expenditure has gone into briefcase cos - to well connected folks with no real businesses & who don't employ even their spousese. Their inflated profits are used to buy Mercs, real estate & expensive overseas hols
3. Add that to the fact that almost all the monies we borrowed over the last 7 years did not even come into the economy. We borrow from a Chinese bank & give the contract to a Chinese company. The money moves from one account in China to another in China.