This week I was in Hartlepool and here's what I learnt about British politics in a Brexit heartland 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Hartlepool is among the most deprived parts of the U.K, with the second-highest unemployment rate. Its manufacturing and steel industries fell away in the 70s and 80s, and the area declined badly 2/ 
The town voted overwhelmingly for Brexit (~70%), seen by many as a cry for change after years of neglect. And it’s that Brexit support which gives the Tories a very good chance of winning the seat, after half-a-century of Labour wins 3/
A key factor will be how the Brexit Party support of 2019 splits. If the bulk goes to the Conservatives, with Johnson having `got Brexit done’, the town will turn blue, like nearby Bishop Auckland and Redcar at the last election 4/
One such Brexit Party voter is Geoff Carr. Running a shoe repair business on Hartlepool’s main high street, he’s backing the Tories this time around. He’s pleased they delivered Brexit, and impressed by the covid vaccination campaign 5/
When I asked locals about sleaze allegations and the refurbishment of the Downing St flat, there were blank faces. ``People don’t care in the slightest,’’ said Peter Davison, a life-long Labour supporter who won’t be voting because he’s so uninspired by the candidates 6/
This was the most common response when I asked about the by-election. People either didn’t care or didn’t know about it. The golden rule in a democracy – never over-estimate political engagement or interest. There are far more interesting and pressing things to think about 7/
Another warning: we should be careful making sweeping national judgements from the local elections on May 6. Most voters I spoke to were viewing the election through a highly local lens. They weren’t thinking `Who do I prefer, Keir Starmer or Boris Johnson’? 8/
But of course, those national judgements will be made. And if Labour isn’t making significant gains on May 6 – when there’s a wave of council, mayoral, Scottish, Welsh elections – it becomes tricky to see them sweeping into Downing Street in 2023 or 2024, says @ProfTimBale 9/
Speaking of Labour, voters gave a mixed reception on Starmer. The basic verdict was `Definitely better than Corbyn, but a bit too posh and southern for our liking’. He'll need to turn that around given how crucial the north is to Labour’s prospects 10/
Bottom line: a win in Hartlepool would be a major coup for Johnson and a sign that good feeling on Brexit and vaccines is overpowering any damage from sleaze scandals. But will the positive halo still exist at the next election? 3 years is an age… ends/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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