"important contribution", read the article or follow the thread below... 1/n

This table is from the paper. "Ratio of persons with + test result after app notification per all SARS-CoV-2 positive cases" ranges from 0.6% to 1.8% in Zurich and 0.2% (!) to 0.6% in Switzerland as a whole, during various periods including the beginning of the 2nd wave. 2/n
Bear in mind these numbers are very likely to be overestimates.

The paper doesn't account for 3 (overlapping) effects:
- household contact w/ notification;
- non-household but already-p2p-traced contact
(see pdehaye.medium.com/lies-damn-lies… );

- already in quarantine but asymptomatic and only way to get a free test is to declare being notified (see github.com/digitalepidemi… )

So, "important contribution", w/ at best 1% of cases detected throughout CH attributable to SwissCovid?

You will be the judge.

But you should also consider the following before making a decision.

SwissCovid has costs as well.
a/ more useless quarantines than through manual CT
b/ privacy costs (on Android it currently leaks just about eveything to 3rd party apps, no official communication by @BAG_OFSP_UFSP)
c/ $ for strange TikTok ads

d/ significant burdening of cantonal staff - training, supervision, manual busy work
e/ subtle but consequential discrimination effects introduced by pre-selecting your sample through access to a digital device

e/ opportunity cost: other efforts, such as science-based backwards contact tracing (not Bluetooth pseudo-engineering!)

You might say the last one is unfair. Well...

It's not like it wasn't predictable that SwissCovid would catch so few cases. See July 2020 tweet:

It has also been known for a looong time that COVID was "overdispersed", which leads to different tracing strategies than those applicable to the flu, that need their own specific digital support tools.
For the life of me, this is what is most puzzling in all this. @C_Althaus had a paper in January 2020 on its overdispersion. Why didn't that insight diffuse faster into the Scientific Task Force?


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More from @podehaye

31 Dec 20
In 2007, I participated in an Oxford vaccine trial. This was the 1st time chimpanzee adenoviruses were tested on humans. I was the second to be injected w/ this stuff.

The Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID vaccine is directly based on that tech, with tremendous hope beyond COVID

2007 was a touchy time to participate in a vaccine trial. The year before a trial for Theralizumab had resulted in 6 volunteers out of 8 suffering a cytokine storm. One of the 6 lost toes and fingers. The last two? They had only received placebos!

As a consequence, the Oxford Jenner Institute had trouble recruiting volunteers for their trials. One of my fellow @MertonCollege Fellows explained to me the science and the goals for their 2017 campaign and convinced me to participate.
Read 21 tweets
4 Sep 20
This work really makes a plethora of basic mistakes.

I will point at some below.
1/ Think SwissCovid leads to many calls to the hotline? That's good, right?

Well, you better know what those calls are for. Building a GAEN app is like building on the quicksand of the OS you are using.

Case in point, Apple:
2/ Think #SwissCovid efficacy is comparable to manual contact tracing? One paper cited is from May 2020, the other July but concerns data collected up until March 2020. Ages ago. We have learned a lot since about the virus, e.g. the heterogeneity of infectiousness ImageImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
13 Mar 20
When Cummings sent his job ad, I wrote a thread on how revealing it was of his world view, and particularly that he would name check a journalist like @carolecadwalla
Indeed, Cummings understands the systemic level very well. But as I said then, he fails to understand how others build meaning and why that is important.
The UK virus strategy is to #FlattenTheCurve, like everywhere else, but with a twist. The epidemiologists operate under the assumption that the behavioral scientists ("nudge unit") are correct, and it is impossible to ask for strong efforts for more than a week.
Read 13 tweets
3 Jan 20
@carolecadwalla The fact that Cummings felt compelled to refer to you in this job ad is actually hugely relevant. He understands the systemic level very well, but fails at understanding how others make sense of the systemic, and why that is important.
@carolecadwalla He also fails to understand there is circularity in the particular context of elections (i.e. process of how the average p makes sense of what's best, given tons of influence). That circularity gives more legitimacy to your stories than his calculations as a way to build meaning
@carolecadwalla His job ad is largely obsessed with "causation" and "counterfactuals", which is a very narrow view of what "meaning" is. Meaning here are explanations that others can relate to, in the sense that they can come up with their own plan of how to relate to it.
Read 7 tweets
25 Jan 19
There is ABSOLUTELY a story here, documenting Facebook's resistance to the "Download your History" feature (yet their use of this White Whale for PR purposes right now, even yesterday at Davos by Sandberg) 1/n
This is not a frivolous request. The reason to ask is that this feature would make a lot of v interesting research much easier and potent (+granular, personal feedback). E.g. this research on Twitter would transfer over completely
I have known this for a while. In fact, as I was working in 2016 w/ @HNSGR on his @CamAnalytica uncovering, I became convinced neither journalism or research alone would cut it. User-centric data, in the spirit of @mydataorg could bridge the two motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/…
Read 21 tweets
28 Sep 18
The FB press release on the data breach discloses enough to conclude it was way more devastating than reported. It makes two partial disclosures: one on quality of the hack (how well did hackers control a hacked account), one on quantity (how many accounts hacked at that level).
The quality of the hack is extremely high: if you fully own an account, you could (through "View As") fully control the account of any of their friends as well (by pretending to be them). One could use this to hop towards high value targets, from friend to friend.
Quality of hack is so high one could also use this full control to log into any place where Facebook Login would have been used (Tinder, Spotify, etc), and access to all the user data there as well. If you read carefully the press release it is implied, but could be clearer.
Read 12 tweets

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