When Cummings sent his job ad, I wrote a thread on how revealing it was of his world view, and particularly that he would name check a journalist like @carolecadwalla
Indeed, Cummings understands the systemic level very well. But as I said then, he fails to understand how others build meaning and why that is important.
The UK virus strategy is to #FlattenTheCurve, like everywhere else, but with a twist. The epidemiologists operate under the assumption that the behavioral scientists ("nudge unit") are correct, and it is impossible to ask for strong efforts for more than a week.
This is very clear if you watch the latest press conference in full. From that assumption, the other steps are logical, even delaying stadium closures.
However, it is clearly wrong that it is impossible to expect more efforts from people. We have watched in Europe as culture and social practices have progressively changed through the week. Tens of thousands of people are about to die, ...
with Italians showing across Europe how serious the whole situation is, a month ahead of the UK.
If it strikes many as an odd strategy, it is because it assumes as dogma that people can't make any additional efforts.
If it strikes many as an odd strategy, it is because it assumes as dogma that people can't make any additional efforts.
This is where the "nudge unit" comes in. The behavioral scientists. But their models depend on people making sense of a situation in just one way, in a very controlled setting. This is an exceptional situation.
I am neither a behavioral scientist nor an epidemiologist. But I would like to see the science and data behind the behavioral modeling. I know that if this was made available, journalists could explain it to the public, which will in turn influence their sacrifice level.
Rory Stewart says essentially the same
edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2…
edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2…
So does Jeremy Hunt
All this coming from a country where schools have (finally) been closed for 3 weeks (+2 of Easter) /end
see also
This thread explains why part of the strategy makes sense. But again it’s the starting point the problem, that framing of “one week is the max”.
