Bottom line for TX-06: National Dems just didn't care about this race. They don't view it as key to protecting the majority since it's going to be redrawn before 2022, and they didn't want to swing big on a tough Texas race and risk missing again after 2020's downballot TX mess.
And as embarrassing as it is to get locked out of the contest for a seat Trump carried by just 3 points, Dems are making a wager that voters and donors aren't tuned in enough to notice or care (a departure from 2017-2018).
Options were:
1. Stay out entirely and risk getting locked out, but keep the race as low-key as possible
2. Go in and make an uphill race you have little faith in into an explicit test of messaging and strength ahead of 2022 (great if you win an upset, sucks if you lose)

1 won.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Jacob Rubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JacobRubashkin

2 May
And they're off in the #TX06 special election. First early returns (read: not predictive) coming in.
In 2020, Democrat Stephen Daniel won the early/absentee vote in Tarrant County 53-47%.

Early voting was more curtailed in this special than it was in the general election, though.

Just got first numbers in from Ellis County, which casts abour 25% of the district's votes and is very Republican. It's where Ellzey, Harrison, and Sanchez are all from, and Ellzey's team has been very bullish on their strength there.
Read 10 tweets
1 May
It's ELECTION DAY in Texas' 6th Congressional District! Here's what you need to know (thread):

-It's to replace Rep. Ron Wright (R), who died after being hospitalized with covid
-There are 23 candidiates (11R, 10D) all on one ballot
-If none gets a majority, it goes to a runoff
-Much of the district is in Tarrant County (Fort Worth/Arlington)
-It could be the FIRST competitive D vs. R special election of the Biden Era
-In 2012, Romney carried the district by 17%, but Trump won it by just 12% in 2016 and 3% in 2020
-Ted Cruz won it by just 3% in 2018
-It's a crowded contest!
-Top GOP contenders: Susan Wright, Rep. Wright's widow; state Rep. Jake Ellzey; former Trump HHS official Brian Harrison
-Top Dem contenders: 2018 nominee Jana Lynne Sanchez; 2020 state house nominee Lydia Bean; nonprofit executive Shawn Lassiter
Read 13 tweets
30 Apr
NEW on Montana's 2nd House seat & Democrats: 2020 gov candidate Whitney Williams—whose father represented MT-1/AL for 9 terms—tells me she's considering a 2022 run.
Several sources familiar w/ 2020 Senate candidate Cora Neumann's thinking say she's seriously considering it too. ImageImage
Here's what Williams, whose father Pat Williams served in Congress from 1979 to 1997, had to say: Image
We don't know what Montana's two districts will look like, but historically the state was split East-West (1980s map below). The Western half of the state (Missoula, Bozeman, Helena etc.) is far more hospitable to Democrats.

The lines will be drawn by independent commission. Image
Read 4 tweets
21 Feb
WI-Sen candidate discussing how, other than a 2008 trip to Oshkosh to campaign for Hillary in the Democratic primary, his first time in the state was when he and his dad traveled to Milwaukee to discuss buying the Bucks from Sen. Herb Kohl (the sale was in 2014).
The last decade has not been kind to the Democratic bench in Wisconsin. No new members of Congress since 2012. Gov. Evers, Lt. Gov. Barnes, AG Kaul all just halfway through their first terms and up for re-election in 2022. A legislative caucus mired deep in the minority.
Lasry’s company in the primary includes Outagamie County Exec. Tom Nelson, a former Bernie Sanders delegate/state assembly majority leader who heads a Trump +10 county anchored by Appleton. Subscribers met him in last week’s issue.…
Read 4 tweets
19 Feb
It's here!

Today's issue includes a 6,700-word look at all 38 states holding gubernatorial elections over the next two years: which states the parties are targetting, which incumbents are most vulnerable, who's planning on running, and much more!…
In ARIZONA, in addition to the usual suspects (HOBBS, STANTON, GALLEGOx2), a notable name being discussed by Democrats is MARCO LÓPEZ, the former Nogales mayor/Obama official who is now a senior adviser to billionaire Carlos Slim and is considering a run.…
In MARYLAND, Prince George's County Executive ANGELA ALSOBROOKS would be a top-tier contender and could be the first Black woman governor in history, but some Democrats think she won't end up running. Close to a dozen other Democrats are eyeing the race.…
Read 4 tweets
18 Feb
This is so freaking cool…
300 meters!
The sky crane!
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!