1/
As our democracy disintegrates, we're moving towards a (federal?) two-party structure. The likes of TMC, DMK, Shiv Sena, JMM, Punjab Congress, AAP, CPI-M versus BJP in the states. No united national opposition. What's next: a one-party system or Balkanization?
As our democracy disintegrates, we're moving towards a (federal?) two-party structure. The likes of TMC, DMK, Shiv Sena, JMM, Punjab Congress, AAP, CPI-M versus BJP in the states. No united national opposition. What's next: a one-party system or Balkanization?
2/
The more a party differentiates itself from the BJP, the bigger it seems to get. JMM is my usual example. Hemant Soren widened the party's base to include more regions, adivasi communities. Everyone else either aligns with the big two or is eaten up by them.
The more a party differentiates itself from the BJP, the bigger it seems to get. JMM is my usual example. Hemant Soren widened the party's base to include more regions, adivasi communities. Everyone else either aligns with the big two or is eaten up by them.
3/
On the other hand, the more a party tries to work with the BJP, the more it risks being consumed. Why JD(U) & AIADMK are at risk. Why Shiv Sena had to leave.
On the other hand, the more a party tries to work with the BJP, the more it risks being consumed. Why JD(U) & AIADMK are at risk. Why Shiv Sena had to leave.
4/
Which leaves multiple political parties with a decision to make on where they stand: BJD, JD(S), SP BSP, TRS.
Position your party against the BJP now, or be acquired.
Which leaves multiple political parties with a decision to make on where they stand: BJD, JD(S), SP BSP, TRS.
Position your party against the BJP now, or be acquired.
5/
So, what happens to the Sharad Pawars & Chandrababu Naidus? Latter must be safe for now; BJP hasn't cracked Andhra. Maharashtra is precariously perched & Pawar is so unique, he's almost almost an anachronism. Pawar is the only one keeping the NCP from being acquired.
So, what happens to the Sharad Pawars & Chandrababu Naidus? Latter must be safe for now; BJP hasn't cracked Andhra. Maharashtra is precariously perched & Pawar is so unique, he's almost almost an anachronism. Pawar is the only one keeping the NCP from being acquired.
6/
Anyone planning on collaborating with the BJP should take notes on the Kejriwal situation. He tried to buy peace with a strategic withdrawal & has been rewarded with a relegation to being the LG's personal postman.
The BJP doesn't take prisoners.
Fin.
Anyone planning on collaborating with the BJP should take notes on the Kejriwal situation. He tried to buy peace with a strategic withdrawal & has been rewarded with a relegation to being the LG's personal postman.
The BJP doesn't take prisoners.
Fin.
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