1/ Reading @nope_its_lily and this hit hard:

"In all honesty, most finfluencers have pretty shit takes on the market. It kind of arises based on the mismatch between the skills required to actually trade and the skills required to market oneself."

2/ That statement is insanely and ridiculously correct.

I think everyone who has other high-value uses of their time goes through the same thought process.

"Why am I doing this?"
3/ I mean, if you wanted to read and learn from #fintwit, you could do so without posting.

If you're not selling anything (or trying to raise AUM which is the same thing), it makes very very little sense.
4/ Full disclosure:

Yes I wrote a book, but I kind of knew that would be (and has been) a -ve $ EV trade. Certainly if the point of being involved in #fintwit was book sales, I'd be better off looking for coins in the couch (hourly rate wise).
5/ Every time you post something, you have to play 3D chess to figure out how people plan on misinterpreting things or taking the wrong lessons.

And that's when people respond at all. Sometimes you wrote something you think is really good, and it's crickets. No dopamine hit!
6/ Even now, as I write this I ask myself "why am I writing this?"

Is it truly to work through the empathy I feel for Lily Francus and what she's dealing with? To explain to others what this hedonic treadmill does to people?

Then why do I keep wondering how many likes I'll get?
7/ Influence corrupts everything around it.

So why? For me, a big part of it is a quixotic effort to marginally increase signal-to-noise about trading for non-professionals.

Like @nope_its_lily says, there are a lot of shit takes out there.
8/ But is it worth the cost?

So far the cost to me has been nowhere near as high as for Lily, but even so the cost vs value tradeoff is pretty darn close.
9/ Anyway, I feel for you Lily and I hope you find peace and satisfaction. I'm not going to say "I hope you come back" because that would make it more about me than about you.

I hope you're at peace. Let's leave it at that.

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More from @AgustinLebron3

20 Apr
I just answered an emailed question. I suspect @KrisAbdelmessih @SinclairEuan @therobotjames and others get these too.

"I'm a smart engineering/CS/math student/graduate. How do I get into quant trading?"

A thread. 👉

2/ I'm going to preface this by asking an important question:

Why trading?

Almost every outsider has an idea of what trading is that's pretty far from the reality. It's not "deploy cool ML models on gigabytes of data". It's:
- Do I have enough cash margin in account JP44315A?
- Why does the data format disseminated by broker X suck so much with this new update?
- How do I optimize my tax footprint?

And a thousand other little annoyances. Plus:

- Am I about to incinerate $ somehow?
Read 10 tweets
2 Apr
1/ A short thread about priors.

- What are they?
- Why do we need them?
- A few specific priors I hold.
2/ Priors are supposed to be "beliefs you hold before seeing the data".

Taken at face value this is crazy. You've been collecting data since the day you were born.
3/ But what we usually mean by priors (in a non-technical sense) is "what is your default assumption".

You may object "Ah, I don't hold any assumptions until I see the data."

That's dumb. (A) You do actually, and (B) you couldn't function in the world if you didn't.
Read 12 tweets
31 Mar
A book review: London And The 17th Century


by @margarettelinc1

When Elizabeth I died, noblemen had to make a huge show of her funeral in order to prep people for the accession of James I (James VI of Scotland).

With modern eyes, it’s cool to see how critical the “show” was to a government’s legitimacy. Government meaning the king, obv.

This wasn’t some unnecessary extravagance. Shutting the city down for a day or two for the funeral procession was a critical part of establishing the legitimacy of the next king.

Oh and by the way, yes James II really was a horrendously bad king.

Read 18 tweets
25 Mar
1/ Musings about variance in trading, in sports, and in life.

A thread.
2/ Why does poker get played for big $ but chess (mostly) doesn’t?

Because of variance.

In chess, if you’re rated 1800 ELO and you’re playing someone rated 2000, you pretty much know exactly your P(win) and P(tie). (It’s 15% and 19%, go check).
3/ There’s no sense in betting for two reasons:

- A wide spread of ability directly creates wide spread in outcome. A 2400 will NEVER lose to an 1800.
- All these probs are pretty much known. $ gets traded when people disagree about probs. No such thing exists in chess.
Read 21 tweets
10 Mar
1/ Quick mini-thread on a useful way to think about risk based on a recent discussion I had.

"If I have an opinion about lithium price, should I trade $LIT?"
2/ Almost definitely not. $LIT is a very weird monster. Many ETFs that target second-tier commodities are equally weird. Why?

Because $LIT includes both producers and consumers.
3/ High Li prices are good for producers, bad for consumers. So what's the effect on $LIT?

It depends on the balance of producers and consumers.
Read 10 tweets
22 Feb
1/ Taking a break from options to talk about a general trading concept.

Intended audience: people who are getting into trading, people have read a bunch of “experts” and came away even more confused, etc.

A thread…
2/ I thought about putting this in the book, but in the end I decided it’s too technical for a general audience. The one sentence claim I make here is:

“Trading is the wrong term for what trading is. Trading is more accurately called positioning.”
3/ What do I mean by this?

Retail traders seem to obsess about “entries” and “exits”. But in my career as a trader, I *never thought about entries and exits. At least, not explicitly.
Read 34 tweets

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