Though all post-Great Recession presidential elections in Michigan have been atypical save for maybe last year representing back to 'normal,' and the electorate still unsettled, the swing mapped from 2012 shows you the beginnings of the uneven realignment. 
Both Obama and Trump disrupted the elections of '08, '12 and '16. The 2016-2020 swing might show movement back to results more inline with those at the beginning of the millennia, but with a significantly different coalition.
Speaking of those earlier elections, here is the election that the 2020 result most closely matched in terms of margin: 2004. It may actually show the realignment better than the 2012-2020 swing. You see the urban movement in NW MI, Lansing, W MI, Kzoo, and parts of SE MI.
It'll be interesting to see removed from Obama and Trump how this all shakes out. Given where the growth and decline is, my guess is the trend is low-to-mid single-digit Dem wins, back to a strong Lean D.
@michigeese_ @MIpol216 @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa
@michigeese_ @MIpol216 @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa
Largest swings from '04 to '20? For the Rs, it's Ogemaw in rural NE MI. It has swung 38 points towards the GOP, though it only casts around 10,000 to 11,000 votes. Biggest Dem swing? Kent in W MI. It's swung 25 points toward Dems and cast 361,000 votes last year.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
