1/23) A "post-covid" wedding rumination on how my observations are likely to translate into more growth than many think #OOTT
I utilize the phrase post-covid, bc I think it would be in our country’s best interest to begin preparing society to safely move beyond the past yr+..
Like many of you, we have been impacted, we have taken this seriously, we have and will continue to follow all orders for the betterment of those around us, and we have been vaccinated.
With that said, there becomes a time when we must responsibly move fwd. It is healthy & imperative for humans to surround ourselves w loved ones & friends. This post isn’t a reflection on the tragedy of the lives lost, nor opining on govt policies, rather it’s an observation..
that I believe will have material global market ramifications.

From an analytical perspective, Texas residents have been fortunate to observe several different mini cycles, bc we have been at the forefront of our country’s reopening trend.
I believe the anecdotes I observed over the weekend will reverberate globally, drive unprecedented growth, and stimulate more oil demand than many third-party resources have accounted for.
IMHO, summer, and winter in America is about to be unlike anything experienced in the past 100 years. While the virus is still “alive”, after 15 months of habitual changes, what was old (pre-covid) will become new again and we will likely face a multiplier effect...
aided by government stimulus, which will cause the pendulum to swing higher and faster than where global economies were in 2019.
The EU and Canada will likely lag the US’s recovery, but they will not be too far behind us…I believe my experiences will be a global phenomenon. While COVID is likely to continue to mutate and stick around in future years, our vaccines will also continue to evolve.
While vigilance is critical, and India must serve as a reminder 🙏. We have now been educated on the importance of washing our hands, wearing a mask when needed, and getting vaccinated (if you choose – because in America we have freedom of choice).
While I know some of those reading this thread will have the first impression of – TEXAS, how irresponsible…let me reiterate, I am crafting this bc of the market implications, rather than the merits of our state’s rights…
Rest assured that like you, we have also been experiencing the inevitable COVID-fatigue. With that said, there becomes a point in time (an inflection) when mental health & human nature must safely be moved to the forefront of this discussion.
I believe I witnessed the beginning of that inflection this past weekend…and I wouldn’t be surprised if dominoes begin to quickly fall elsewhere. These observations are a microcosm for what will transpire across the nation in due time…
I witnessed grandparents taking off their masks, I spoke to many individuals who had been vaccinated, I observed larger smiles, happier people, everyone dancing, and a lot of hugs. This was healthy for humans.
It was healthy because humans need interaction. It was surreal at times, it was bizarre, but in the end…it felt normal.

The past 15 months have been a time to reflect & give thanks for health, safety, family, friends, and of course our essential workers.
If anything, it has taught us not to take our time with others for granted…

Yes, it is my belief, that these observations will also be reflected in states like NY and CA too! I for one am ready to get back to the Big🍎and bask in CA’s beauty, and I know I do not stand alone!
These states will open soon, and the hospitality industry, that has been decimated, will see unprecedented growth in demand.
As for the multiplier effect, my past experiences conclude that a pre-covid wedding has about 30% of attendees remaining before the newly married couple departs their reception. This wedding was different...
When the clock struck midnight, and the band played their last song…about 75% of the attendees remained…and nobody wanted to leave…
The chants of “encore” were loud because live music, for many, has not been observed in over a year. I predict that nights will last longer, people will party harder, more babies will be born, and the Roaring 20s will be revived.
A human’s health, energy, and wellbeing is largely dependent upon the people with whom they surround themselves with. Let my past weekend serve as a case study (& encouragement) for those that have been cooped up for over a year. LIFE WILL RETURN TO NORMAL!
Not only did we all immediately revert to our normal antics, but it transformed into an event that was akin to a pre-COVID wedding on steroids.
The ingredients for growth are a coiled spring…we are made for human interaction…

Pent-up demand, and government filled cash coffers, will likely be expressed via more spending, later hours at restaurants/bars, more traveling, and exuberant behaviors.
These actions will stimulate growth, spur inflation, and supercharge our demand for hydrocarbons. While oil consolidates, please let my past experiences serve as a reminder for what is to come. #Oil #OOTT

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More from @wrbailey8

1 Dec 20
As always, @pickeringenergy provided some wise insights on today's podcast w/ @DavidRamsdenWo...

1) "We have a fund that looks at pdp in the permian and anyone saying paying pv20 in perm basin isn't, that's a lie"
2) "good assets in good basins are somewhere b/t PV10 & PV15 & the ? is how bad do you want it and how much do you want to pay for an option"

3) November "bounce isn't driven by big $ plyrs concerned about ESG & not w huge vol so we're 2% to 2.3% of SP..we're going back to 7-8%"
4) ".. $COP & $DVN could continue to be buyers maybe $XOM and private equity could be consolidator on take private"

5) "oil is more dislocated and more interesting but gas will have it's day in the sun for the next year"
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