Part 2
1/20 Zimbabwe and AfCFTA
In two seasons time, Zimbabwean millers will be able to buy Maize from Zambia. Cheaply.
What will Zim farmers do? Zambia & Malawi produce profitably at US$200/ton.
Zim farmers get between US$267 to US$381/ton
The day of reckoning?
1/20 Zimbabwe and AfCFTA
In two seasons time, Zimbabwean millers will be able to buy Maize from Zambia. Cheaply.
What will Zim farmers do? Zambia & Malawi produce profitably at US$200/ton.
Zim farmers get between US$267 to US$381/ton
The day of reckoning?
2/20
Zim yields per tonne are some of the worst in the region besides the biggest GOZ support.
What if SA enters the fray? Given its Capital advantage?
Instead of an agricultural commodity SA will focus on the value chain & manufacturing were there are higher margins.
Zim yields per tonne are some of the worst in the region besides the biggest GOZ support.
What if SA enters the fray? Given its Capital advantage?
Instead of an agricultural commodity SA will focus on the value chain & manufacturing were there are higher margins.
3/20
For example fertilizer manufacturing. SA banks will offer credit to the rest of Africa to buy SA fertilizer.
But which country is SA most likely to provide credit to? Zim, Zam & Malawi?
Trade is about the movement of CAPITAL. Is SA CAPITAL safe in Zim over 10yr period?
For example fertilizer manufacturing. SA banks will offer credit to the rest of Africa to buy SA fertilizer.
But which country is SA most likely to provide credit to? Zim, Zam & Malawi?
Trade is about the movement of CAPITAL. Is SA CAPITAL safe in Zim over 10yr period?
4/20
If capital doesn’t have the confidence in a country then trade is on a cash basis.
Zim has a comparative disadvantage in farming Maize to Zam& Malawi.
Furthermore a Capital comparative disadvantage as SA extends credit to countries were capital will be safest!
If capital doesn’t have the confidence in a country then trade is on a cash basis.
Zim has a comparative disadvantage in farming Maize to Zam& Malawi.
Furthermore a Capital comparative disadvantage as SA extends credit to countries were capital will be safest!
5/20
For brevity i have used Maize as just one easy example. And commodities unlike consumer products are easy to adopt in different markets.
Zim will delay the inevitable by restricting trade. According to AfCFTA rules any lawful restrictions should be done away by 2030
For brevity i have used Maize as just one easy example. And commodities unlike consumer products are easy to adopt in different markets.
Zim will delay the inevitable by restricting trade. According to AfCFTA rules any lawful restrictions should be done away by 2030
6/20
Back to the theory.
Comparative advantage is an economy's ability to produce a particular good or service at a lower opportunity cost than its trading partners.
A CA gives a economy the ability to sell at a lower price than its competitors and realize stronger margins.
Back to the theory.
Comparative advantage is an economy's ability to produce a particular good or service at a lower opportunity cost than its trading partners.
A CA gives a economy the ability to sell at a lower price than its competitors and realize stronger margins.
7/20
CA is the very basis of trade. Individuals, let alone countries cannot do everything. Their time is best spent doing what they are excellent at, better than others. Whence, they produce a surplus & trade with that they have a deficit.
CA is the very basis of trade. Individuals, let alone countries cannot do everything. Their time is best spent doing what they are excellent at, better than others. Whence, they produce a surplus & trade with that they have a deficit.
8/20
Poor countries never understand this principle & misallocate the little CAPITAL in trying to do everything. Thereby lose in the competitive trade space.
A lot could be learnt from Switzerland, Singapore & Mauritius.
Poor countries never understand this principle & misallocate the little CAPITAL in trying to do everything. Thereby lose in the competitive trade space.
A lot could be learnt from Switzerland, Singapore & Mauritius.
9/20
In the month of May, after celebrating the day of the worker it’s instructive that of all bad policies in Zim the good that stands out is the investment in education.
While many remain unemployed in Zimbabwe, the premium Zim product finds its employment in foreign lands.
In the month of May, after celebrating the day of the worker it’s instructive that of all bad policies in Zim the good that stands out is the investment in education.
While many remain unemployed in Zimbabwe, the premium Zim product finds its employment in foreign lands.
10/20
FIVE Million Zimbabweans live outside of the teapot shaped borders.
(i) Most are formally employed being skilled/semi skilled Labour.
(ii) Most ply their trade in Africa.
(iii) More Zimbabweans employed in SA than Zim.
(iv) More highly skilled Zimbabweans in Bots than Zim
FIVE Million Zimbabweans live outside of the teapot shaped borders.
(i) Most are formally employed being skilled/semi skilled Labour.
(ii) Most ply their trade in Africa.
(iii) More Zimbabweans employed in SA than Zim.
(iv) More highly skilled Zimbabweans in Bots than Zim
11/20
The most sort after Zim skill by the rest of Africa & Internationally are mechanical/electrical/automotive technicians like boiler making to factory electricians.
SA has a shortage of this work. & in the recruitment world, will go over & beyond to get a Zim boiler maker
The most sort after Zim skill by the rest of Africa & Internationally are mechanical/electrical/automotive technicians like boiler making to factory electricians.
SA has a shortage of this work. & in the recruitment world, will go over & beyond to get a Zim boiler maker
12/20
SA & Bots are losing Zim technicians after a few years as they springboard to Australia & UK.
Therefore. Based on quantum & number of inquiries the most desired qualification from Zim is the Harare Polytechnic National Diploma for technicians.
SA & Bots are losing Zim technicians after a few years as they springboard to Australia & UK.
Therefore. Based on quantum & number of inquiries the most desired qualification from Zim is the Harare Polytechnic National Diploma for technicians.
13/20
Yet. The national malaise is that Zim concentrates on producing university graduates.
If Rhodesia only needed one university & less than a 1k graduates a year why would Zimbabwe require more than 10k university graduates a year? Most of whom are commerce& humanities?
Yet. The national malaise is that Zim concentrates on producing university graduates.
If Rhodesia only needed one university & less than a 1k graduates a year why would Zimbabwe require more than 10k university graduates a year? Most of whom are commerce& humanities?
14/20
As resources are spent on producing useless university graduates, little is spent on polytechnics & technical colleges which provide Zim’s niche comparative & competitive advantage.
Harare Poly only produces 829 ND graduates. Of which only 400, have technical skill set
As resources are spent on producing useless university graduates, little is spent on polytechnics & technical colleges which provide Zim’s niche comparative & competitive advantage.
Harare Poly only produces 829 ND graduates. Of which only 400, have technical skill set
15/20
The current GOZ will never see the folly of its ways. We should be contend with that.
Stopping STEM was malicious & stupid.
Parents must encourage their kids to do STEM. To go to polytechnics & pick up technical skills. They can upskill or pick up humanities later
The current GOZ will never see the folly of its ways. We should be contend with that.
Stopping STEM was malicious & stupid.
Parents must encourage their kids to do STEM. To go to polytechnics & pick up technical skills. They can upskill or pick up humanities later
16/20
Industry has let down the polytechnics that are dotted in every province in preference for university graduates.
A graduate trainee program for 30 invites 10k applicants. While boilermakers are headhunted.
It’s time industry supports technical skills
Industry has let down the polytechnics that are dotted in every province in preference for university graduates.
A graduate trainee program for 30 invites 10k applicants. While boilermakers are headhunted.
It’s time industry supports technical skills
17/20
For students it’s time to reorient themselves especially after O levels. It’s most probable that they will leave Zim at some point. A university degree in commerce, law, humanities & social sciences is less valued than national diploma in technical subjects.
For students it’s time to reorient themselves especially after O levels. It’s most probable that they will leave Zim at some point. A university degree in commerce, law, humanities & social sciences is less valued than national diploma in technical subjects.
18/20
In this second part of the three part series I sort to show that Zim has a comparative advantage in skilled labour compared to the rest of Africa. At the same time misallocates resources overpaying wasteful farmers. AfCFTA brings competition.
In this second part of the three part series I sort to show that Zim has a comparative advantage in skilled labour compared to the rest of Africa. At the same time misallocates resources overpaying wasteful farmers. AfCFTA brings competition.
19/20
I went further to highlight the folly of producing useless graduates in commerce, law, social sciences & humanities that are excess to the requirements of Zim and the world.
Zim is well known for its technical abilities.
I went further to highlight the folly of producing useless graduates in commerce, law, social sciences & humanities that are excess to the requirements of Zim and the world.
Zim is well known for its technical abilities.
20/20
In part 3, I will show how Zim missed negotiating a better deal with AfCFTA. And what it can do to rectify.
Ps. Is it true that UZ physics department has less than five students a year? 😢
In part 3, I will show how Zim missed negotiating a better deal with AfCFTA. And what it can do to rectify.
Ps. Is it true that UZ physics department has less than five students a year? 😢
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