With the first big electoral tests of the 2019 Parliament just days away, seems like a good moment to confirm the forthcoming book "The British General Election of 2019" - co-authored with
@ProfTimBale @drjennings & @p_surridge
will be coming to all good bookstores this autumn
The team and I have spoken to all the key players in all the parties to give you the definitive account of what happened in the election campaign, and the Parliament preceding it. All the big choices & controversies examined with testimony from those in the room when it happened
Nor is that all, not by a long shot! We have a stellar cast of guest contributors, including analysis of the Brexit process from @anandMenon1 and @DrAlanWager of
@UKandEU ; politics in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland examined by @ailsa_henderson @roger_scully
and @JonTonge
...examination of the role of the press in the campaign from @DNDeacon David Smith and Dominic Wring, a look at candidates, MPs and the changing composition of Parliament with @ProfRosieCamp @J_A_Hudson and @chrisbutlerpol
...series veteran @philipjcowley returns to open the book with an account of how we got to the election, and the psephological a-team @whatukthinks @StephenDFisher and @PME_Politics run the rule over the new electoral map of Britain....
...we complement that with a brand new analysis of the election results at the individual level using @BESResearch data to understand the changes reshaping our politics short and long term
The choices facing all the parties today are framed by the consequences of the last election, and the chaotic Parliament which preceded it. We hope our book will help understand that election. Coming soon!

Researching and writing a book during a pandemic is challenging, to put it mildly! But working with such a smart, creative and just generally lovely team has made meeting that challenge much more enjoyable. Thanks to Paula, Tim, Will and all of our amazing contributors.
(Sorry for any confusion everyone - had to delete the thread and do it over because I manage to get the title wrong first time around!!)

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More from @robfordmancs

29 Apr
One of the developments easily overlooked in the extraordinary turbulence of 2019 was the very strong Green performance in local elections that year - was their best performance ever. Will be interesting to see if they can repeat it next week
If they do then this may have seismic long term implications- the Lib Dems’ enduring strength as the main third party in England is built on their ability to build support, visibility and activists via local government. Greens did same in Brighton, now looking to build out
Labour probably have most to worry about from Green expansion given the overlap between two parties’ appeals - Greens could swiftly become a new hone for disaffected liberal-left voters. But if Greens demonstrate local competence they could easy draw support from Cons & LDs too
Read 4 tweets
22 Apr
"Ban this act of political free speech" says, errm, the Free Speech Union.
Imagine making a symbolic political statement about race at the Olympics.
Read 7 tweets
13 Apr
Reckless prudence is bad.

Reflexive trust in authorities practicing reckless prudence is also bad (particularly if it incentivises more reckless prudence).

Authorities can be experts acting in good faith and still get stuff badly wrong. Remember Jenny Harries and Caprice?
This is *not* a call to instinctively distust authorities. It *is* a call to think about the numbers involved:

Absolutely minute risk of a harm from vaccine vs (often) larger risk of harms from vaccine suspension.

If the sums don't add up, they don't add up.
Conversely if the sums do add up, they do add up. It depends on the details of the vaccine restriction (who's not getting the jabs, how at risk from COVID are they), the state of the vaccine rollout, and the state of the local COVID situation.
Read 4 tweets
7 Apr
Interesting piece, and in points to a growing dilemma for Labour, which we discuss in Brexitland: its two strongest constituencies are increasingly white "conviction liberals" and ethnic minorities. They agree strongly on antiracism, but disagree strongly on many other things
For example, socially conservative views on gender, LGBT rights, the role of women, even law and order, are frequently found among BAME voters, & among BAME faith organisations. Labour can either shun those voters/organisations or annoy white liberals.
Traditionally, white liberals have tended to put antiracism/BAME representation first in this regard and/or the social conservatism of BAME voters has simply not been v salient. This latest incident suggests that position may become harder to sustain.
Read 4 tweets
5 Apr
Certainly fits with my anecdotal experience.
Some of the biggest founts of UK politics fake news on social media have been hyper-partisan sites like the Canary, Another Angry Voice or Westmonster, whose creators and readers are evidently motivated by intense hatred of the out-party.
Seems very plausible to me that a lot of people sharing that kind of content do it because they provide an attractive good not so easily available from mainstream sources - attention grabbing ultra-negative stories about the outgroup
Read 4 tweets
31 Mar
Today's report of the Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities looks very much like an example of the "politics of racism" which @ProfSobolewska discussed at length in Brexitland.
@ProfSobolewska Antiracism is a losing issue for the Conservatives, who have for 50 plus years been less trusted on the issue than Labour (and for good reason - all significant antiracism legislation passed by Labour). Yet dismissing racism is also a losing issue for them, too - so what to do?
@ProfSobolewska The obvious answer is what we see today - acknowledging racism as an issue, while seeking (a) to play up (real) areas of progress and tell a positive story and (b) minimise attention to (real) areas of continuing discrimination and disadvantage
Read 10 tweets

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