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Coiner-Yadox Profile picture
@Yodaskk
May 4, 2021 • 25 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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$BTC $BTCUSD #BTC

🅼🅴🅶🅰 Thread on several Models / indicators / On Chain Analysis

Part 4

Update at $btc=57k, May 2020
Taking support on NVT like previous cycles
RVT ratio
previous resistance as support, acting similarly as previous bull cycles
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple

still In Bull market territory
200 week moving average heatmap now in yellow
advanced in the cycle -similar to q2/q3 2017-but probably not a top yet
Puell multiple

After the higher low, now in a consolidation between 2 & 3 like previous cycles -similar to q2/q3 2017-
S2F
no need for explanation
Pi cycle top indicator gave a pretty good signal at 60k+
This one would be the most bearish signal as of yet
Bitcoin log growth curves
Similar as previously, seems advanced in the cycle, but doesnt look as a top -probably like q2/q3 2017-
MVRV Z-Score made a Parabolic advance starting like previous bull markets
now doing a consolidation between 2 & 6 similar to q2/q3 2017
1Y+ HODL wave
signs of distributions like previous bull markets ?
RHOL ratio

consolidation around 10k like previous cycles
Relative Unrealized profit/loss

consolidating in the greed zone -like q2/q3 2017- but didnt touched yet the euphoria area
Miner capitulation, similar to previous cycle

Lol it actually looks so similar, with the halving kicking the hyperspeed
Bitcoin long term power law

on the last part of the bull cycle and approaching resistance soon
BEAM indicator

mid cycle, similar to q2/q3 2017
mayer multiple bands

consolidating between bullish and bullish extension
Based from their lows, this cycle seems on track compared to 2 previous ones - and also ~~like q2/q3 2017
$btc reserve on exchange continueing to be depleted rapidly and at the same speed
NVM hitting highs never seen before
MPI indicating that miners are really quiet since March 1st
Conclusion:

Some over heating signs start to appear, but overall it seems we are at the equivalent of q2/q3 2017, and that there is still 3-6 months of bull market and at least a last leg up imo

SOURCES:
stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com
charts.woobull.com
lookintobitcoin.com/charts/
Previous thread
Part 1
$btc= 5k, March 17th 2020, post corona drop

Previous Thread
Part 2

Update at $btc=9300, July 2020

Previous thread
Part 3

Update at $btc=18k, Dec 2020

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More from @Yodaskk

Coiner-Yadox Profile picture
Oct 20, 2024
You all probably won't read all of this coz you lazy, but basically there is a lots of similarities between late 70s and now: inflation rising asf, war risks all over the world, and a LAST MACRO WAVE 5 in gold and markets
$BTC is currently in the same position as gold in 1978 IMO

Look what ChatGPT is saying :
### **Inflation and War Risk: Late 1970s vs. Current Dates**

#### **Inflation in the Late 1970s**
The late 1970s were marked by what is known as the "Great Inflation." Key characteristics include:
- **High Inflation Rates**: Inflation rates soared, reaching as high as 14% by the end of the decade². This period saw persistent and high inflation, driven by factors such as oil price shocks, loose monetary policies, and high government spending.
- **Economic Impact**: The high inflation eroded purchasing power and led to economic instability. The Federal Reserve eventually had to implement very high interest rates to control inflation, which led to recessions².

#### **Current Inflation**
In recent years, inflation has also been a significant concern, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions:
- **Rising Inflation**: Inflation rates have increased globally, with some countries experiencing rates above 6%¹. Factors include supply chain disruptions, increased demand post-pandemic, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy prices.
- **Central Bank Responses**: Central banks have been raising interest rates to combat inflation, similar to the late 1970s, though the current rates are generally lower than the peak rates of the 1970s¹.

#### **War Risk in the Late 1970s**
The late 1970s were a period of heightened geopolitical tension, primarily due to the Cold War:
- **Cold War Tensions**: The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 significantly increased tensions between the Soviet Union and the West⁵. This period saw a sharp increase in the perceived risk of nuclear conflict.
- **Impact on Markets**: The geopolitical instability contributed to market volatility and uncertainty, influencing investor behavior and market trends.

#### **Current War Risk**
Today, geopolitical risks remain a significant factor:
- **Russia-Ukraine Conflict**: The ongoing conflict has had substantial economic and market impacts, particularly through its effects on energy prices and global supply chains¹.
- **Global Tensions**: Other geopolitical tensions, such as those involving China and the US, also contribute to market uncertainty.

### **Wave 5 Macro in Elliott Wave Theory**
In both periods, the behavior and psychology of wave 5 in Elliott Wave Theory are influenced by these macroeconomic and geopolitical factors:
- **Late 1970s**: The high inflation and war risk contributed to a speculative mania and market volatility. Wave 5 during this period would have been characterized by heightened emotions, such as greed and fear, driven by economic instability and geopolitical tensions.
- **Current Period**: Similar factors are at play today, with high inflation and geopolitical risks influencing market behavior. Wave 5 in the current context might also see significant divergence between price and momentum indicators, reflecting underlying market instability.Image
What's pretty cool is that in the Late 1970s**: The high inflation and war risk contributed to a speculative mania. Giving the last macro wave 5.

Which is EXACTLY what I think is happening on trad markets and especially in crypto
Ok so if the theory is right, we are in a speculative mania due to wave 5 in trad, thus you go higher on the risk curve, and you go into crypto

Jackpot

But thing is, crypto is now here for years, and is ALSO in last macro wave 5, which is the most speculative one!
Read 8 tweets
Coiner-Yadox Profile picture
Oct 20, 2024
$btc target 249k, 5T mcap

Same mcap target as gold in the 70s

$btc 69k past ath was around 1.2T also
See similarities in charts also Image
I'll let you guess where we currently are here imo
Just in case it wasn't clear where I think we are and how gold 70s and $btc charts are similar

Lazy to make a fractal I'm not on pc Image
Read 9 tweets
Coiner-Yadox Profile picture
Mar 16, 2023
$btc $btcusd

Wyckoff Accumulation 9 months range

FTX was the terminal shakeout and half the market out there is still waiting for a black Swan ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Thread

1/x Image
Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic
&
Vocabulary used
Image
Was it a Terminal shakeout ? All the parameters of a Spring / Terminal Shakeout are here.

Abrubt movement of breakage that produce a deep penetration of the levels of support and a fast recovery.
ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Coiner-Yadox Profile picture
Jan 12, 2022
$btc $btcusd

Several scenarii I can see from there, each one have valid arguments imo at this point

- 1 year accumulation range / macro Ascending triangle into continuation of bull

- Bull market is already over, thus we look for a lower high next

thread
1/x Image
$btc $btcusd
On 5D, it looks like a nice ascending triangle if we have a local bottom around 40k (with a target around 100k)

Meaning all 2021 would be in fact a huge 1 year re-accumulation.

2/x Image
$btc $btcusd

2021 being a 1 year re-accumulation also would have a valid EW count with this big running flat correction

==> a last macro wave 5 is left in the bull market

3/x Image
Read 7 tweets
Coiner-Yadox Profile picture
Nov 20, 2021
$Ethbtc

Again...

A 2 year Wyckoff accumulation breaking out with a Livermore accumulation cylinder, and now re - accumulating into an ascending triangle / pennant on top of the Livermore.

If you don't like this chart and expect a rally to at least 0.1, IDK what to tell you Image
Read 6 tweets
Coiner-Yadox Profile picture
May 20, 2021
$btc $btcusd #BTCUSD

T
E
R
M SHAKEOUT
I
N
A
L

(1/X) Image
large penetration of support line
sudden increase in volume

Candle that penetrates the zone of liquidity and that returns practically the totality of the move in 1or2 candles

Terminal shakeouts is used to define movements with much deeper penetration and with higher volume

2/X Image
If after the breakout of the lower part of the structure,price fails to stay below(we are currently here)and re-enters the range again,it denotes strong puchase entry and adds greater probability that the breakage is false and that the Spring /terminal shakeout is developping
3/x Image
Read 13 tweets

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