Investing in Small cap domination eventually leads to big wealth creation, Don't overoptimise for valuations here, in-fact optimize for Moat, if the company's business Castle is well moated, the long runway of opportunity will ensure you make a hell of a lot of money regardless.
The likes of Astral and Page hardly ever traded at conventionally cheap valuations since the beginning of last decade, but have still generated immense wealth for investors who have held it with the scarce commodity called "Patience".
While one might think that we chose the likes of astral and page selectively in hindsight, but the truth is truly moated small caps are hard to come by.
And being lenient with valuations is an act to be committed only with a select few.
When in doubt skip!
Truly moated companies compensate you more than adequately for sticking with them even through a supposed downturn
.#TataElxsi topped out in july 2018 at levels of 1300, and then went into a downturn, well for those who held on the company has given 3x returns even from the top.
The crux is:
Being sufficiently rich from trying to be sufficiently rich is better than being definitely poor from trying to be filthy rich.
Invest in Moated Castles!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Great thread. #Garwaretechfilms is one of the few small caps, thats able create a brand in advanced markets. They compete with the likes of 3m in the US and while it gets valued as a commodity company, it deserves to be trading as a speciality consumer company.
A barometer of company's brand strength is it gross margins & Payment terms. GM% are at a great 65% at present( vs 38% for the commodity film companies) and the company offers no credit and works on a cash & Carry model.
Hard to find an Indian company that sells in the US in cash
One of the best models is for the company to sell to many small customers & that too in retail. Garware Hitech's customers are the 4000 paint tinters in the US. Their existing brand recognition amongst the tinters for the window films will work well for it paints film business.
Even for a small cap investor a large % of his PF should be optimized for "Capacity to suffer & durability" rather than for pure upside.
In country like India, if one stays invested long enough the demographics & its upwardly mobile percapita income will take care of the upside.
This calls for a supply side excellence which creates a capacity of suffer through difficult periods or actually demonstrates antifragility and thrives under stress through the strength of its reputation and balance sheet by acquiring assets in distress.
A classic ex of this is APL apollo, over the last decade where most metal convertors have struggled, APL has demonstrated anti fragility thrived by using its superior balance sheet to acquire assets from companies that were in distress like the plant bought from Shankara.
#PixTransmission is a dominant small cap in its duopolistic market of V-Belts, essential in all manufacturing sectors.
Company due to robust demand has recently approved further capex of 60 crores.
Promoter increasing stake.
Indian Market is dominated by Pix & Fenner, V-Belts has repeatable purchase as the product wears out after a limited time.
Due to its use in every industry, it is required that the manufacturer have v belts in 1000's of sizes and every size has a different mold.
This inventory of molds calls for a significant investment, which acts as a moat for the incumbent.
Since v belts are used across India, the vendor is required to have most of its variants stocked with dealers across the country.Pix has a significant distribution moat in India.
A successful consumer tech company should always be valued significantly higher than a normal consumer company.
Opportunity size is large for both but the digital distribution of the tech company services allows it traverse the opp landscape faster than a normal consumer company.
Since capex is not a challenge in setting up a tech business, therefore a tech company has to create alternate barriers, thus the need to drive business velocity as network effect is true barrier to entry.
To get to that scale, tech companies have to sacrifice near term eps.
If public market doesnot agree with this, its the markets' loss, these companies will either stay private or raise equity from Nasdaq.
So in true tech if the public market participants want the alpha, they have to devise alternate methods to assess a company and its valuations.
#Nazara's gamified early learning app, Kiddopia, subscriber base grew from 115,220 paying subscribers in January 2020 at the time of acquisition to 290,508 as of Oct 2020.
Stunning growth!
Another #Nazara subsidiary has 80% market share of Indian industry in esports segment.
#Nazara's annualised Advertisement & Promotion spends has gone from 27 cr in Fy19 to 238 crores this year. They can easily show significantly higher profits by cutting this marginally but its more about land grab at this point. Market should recognise that and value accordingly.
Gaming Vs Movies vs Music, although Movies get most attention due to glamour. But Gaming is bigger than movies and Music combined.