Thread by @davidfrum

By exaggerating the power of China, US policymakers risk harming this country by justifying protectionism and inflating the defense budget beyond reasonable levels. Trump added $100 billion / year in defense spending, most of it aimed at fighting China. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

"Buy American" will cost the US taxpayer another $100 billion a year.

That unnecessary $200 billion could buy a *lot* of more authentic usefulness: carbon reduction, road improvement, cheaper college tuition theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

I get that Democratic administrations never want to argue, "The foreign threat of the moment - while real - is less terrifying than out-of-power Republicans say it is."

So I'll say it, here:

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

One PS to this article.

A counter-argument I often hear is: yes, but in 1990, the US Seventh Fleet could have easily defeated a Chinese invasion of Taiwan - and now, it's not so clear that they could. 1/x

And yes, China is much militarily stronger than it was in 1990. Two crucial "buts" however:

1) Even if China might hypothetically "win" in war game terms, any such attack cost China dear in ships and men - smashing up the Chinese armed forces for a long time to come.

2/x

But more important:

2) Suppose China did "win" such a conflict. What happens next?

Violent disruption of the massive investment flows from Taiwan ... Perpetual military occupation of 24 million resistant Chinese speakers ... China's other neighbors all turn enemy ... 3/x

Japan and South Korea pushed to become nuclear weapons states ... and - underscore this - not a single one of China's larger strategic problem solved, because Taiwan's ports all face the wrong way, west not east, meaning post-invasion China remains as landlocked as ever. 4/x

Above all:

If democracies lose foreign wars, they recriminate, then rebuild. See USA/Vietnam.

When authoritarian states lose, the regime collapses. See USSR/Afghanistan.

It's not only the US Navy that deters China from attacking Taiwan. It's fear of the Chinese people. END