Great thread that takes apart WSJ's predictable opposition to the TRIPS waiver that would help expand COVID vaccine production. The @WSJ is stridently focused on avoiding any attempt to learn from history.
It's unclear if it will pass. On the positive side, India has not one but potentially at least two unique vaccine IPs (Covaxin and the DNA-based Zycov-D in advanced trials).
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This is a departure in one more way: Covaxin is the only inactivated viral vaccine. Previous examples quoted have involved clean room re-engineering of western IP. Covaxin & Zycov-D are the first vaccines using their respective technologies in the world.
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However this does not mean India should not support the waiver any longer - there are simply too many people still a long way from accessing vaccines, even if India can independently devise and manufacture what it needs for itself.
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Recently various sources have pitched the Pfizer vaccine for India. This parlays the recent western ‘branding’ effort differentiating Pfizer, but it is known that this vaccine has some unique technical requirements.
This thread analyzes the Pfizer logistics in depth.
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Storage
The vaccine must be stored at -60 to -80C, i.e. ultra low temp (ULT), much colder than normal freezer (-20C) or fridge (2 to 8C). Such storage systems are costly but cost depends on capacity. These have alarm systems to notify of failure or temperature fluctuations.
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The Pfizer transport box shows ~5000 doses = 10L tray volume. It is packed with dry ice and can be transported for no more than 10 days unopened, 15 if dry ice recharged. Each pallet has IoT comm to notify Pfizer of problems: truckinginfo.com/10134508/vacci… bbc.com/news/technolog…
This thread covers their production effort, scaling and some other factors. Starting with SII:
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SII started out with 50-60 million doses/mth capacity. Apr 1 it announced efforts to scale up to 100m by May using internal resources, and requested Rs.3000cr funding to scale up. The bulk order came thru mid April, enabling further scale up and deliveries through May/June.
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A common mistake made is to extrapolate latest prices to all future orders. Prices are tied to capital costs of scaling up and order size. Early SII orders were Rs.200/dose + GST. The higher initial price Is due to setup and initial investment SII made, described later.
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Observations: 1. SII-AZ signed the Covishield licence prodn deal to enable COVAX supply, so $3/dose is baseline 2. SII supplied 50m doses at that price, another 100m doses at 66% of that price to Indian govt.
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The second deal significantly stressed SII, supplying so far below cost. Same vaccine made in EU goes for $4-6 (Rs.300-450) per dose. SII pays ~Rs.75 per dose as royalty to AZ. At Rs.150/dose it makes only Rs.75.
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This thread discusses “vaccine shortage”. Data from news reports over last 6 months.
Tl;dr: Situation is not shortage as such. India has stockpile of ~140m doses end March. However there’s a tricky situation with supply vs consumption over short term.