Thread by @philgunson

Today’s appointment of a new electoral authority (CNE) in #Venezuela, with an increased opposition presence, is the strongest hint yet that @NicolasMaduro wants a thaw in relations with Washington. (Thread) 🧵

Formally appointed by the govt-dominated National Assembly, the five-member CNE board (plus 10 reserve members) is actually the result of lengthy private negotiations with factions of the opposition opposed to @jguaido’s all-or-nothing policy.

https://twitter.com/GRamsey_LatAm/status/1389687143426101251

Maduro has in the past two weeks responded to U.S. demands for “concrete measures” with a number of moves, of which the CNE appointments represent the latest, and potentially the most significant.

Last Friday the government granted house arrest to six former oil executives (five of them US citizens) whose release Washington has demanded since they were jailed in 2017.

https://twitter.com/CNNEE/status/1388336858439065600

On 19 April a long-awaited agreement was signed granting the World Food Program access to Venezuela to help alleviate child malnutrition. A WFP team is already on the ground setting up its operation.

https://twitter.com/WFPChief/status/1384813716097703936

On Saturday Venezuela’s chief prosecutor (Fiscal general) Tarek W Saab announced charges relating to three very high profile political killings in which the govt has previously denied official responsibility.

https://twitter.com/VENPRENSA/status/1388553944293593097

All of these moves by Maduro are tentative and reversible. Election conditions will remain under govt control; the Citgo 6 can be returned to jail, WFP access could be curtailed and human rights prosecutions do not affect senior govt ranks.

The mainstream opposition under @jguaido, recognised by the U.S. as Venezuela’s legitimate president, rejected the new CNE in advance. It regards the current National Assembly – the product of Dec 2020 elections the opposition boycotted – as illegitimate.

https://twitter.com/AsambleaVE/status/1387084942233022476

But some in the opposition, and in civil society, are determined to return to the electoral route, despite unfair conditions. They argue that any opportunity must be grasped and that Guaidó’s “all or nothing” approach has so far failed.

https://twitter.com/AmericoDeGrazia/status/1389477518730690568

Local and regional elections are expected in December. As Crisis Group has often stressed, electoral reform is a necessary first step if Venezuela is to avoid an ever worsening conflict. crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…

All eyes are now on Washington, where some influential voices are pushing for a reciprocal move, probably involving limited sanctions relief.

https://twitter.com/APjoshgoodman/status/1389593206107504645