Thread by @federicolois

@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 1/n That shouldn't be too difficult. Take a 50% seroprevalence location (my hometown serves quite well), spike based randomized serostudy done less than a month ago. Know the population, 125K inhabitants, 15% percent >60yo. 3 deaths over the entire pandemic below 40yo.

@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 2/n Therefore, that is 60K (rounding down) infected people, and given our population structure we know that at least 30K of those had been below 40yo. Right? So from 30K infections you got 4 deaths.

@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 3/n But we can do even better. You know I kinda know the person in charge there (did I mention is my hometown?). You know how many of those had been healthy? I dont want to spoil it, but...

@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 4/n So, dont take me for granted:
19yo -> Required a liver transplant.
37yo -> Chronic kidney disease.
40yo -> Serious coronary disease.
42yo -> Serious diabetes complications.
Do I continue?

@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 5/n The mistake is in conflating IFR of healthy and IFR of already vulnerable. Age is important, but so is health conditions, and until we dont disentangle both the arguments about EUA are moot. Is EUA warranted for those are risk, yeaahhh.. Is it warranted for healthy. HELL NO!.

@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 6/n Do I believe the decision is personal and should be decided after a serious risk assessment. A resounding yes. Do I believe that vaccinating everybody is the way forward? Well, if the vaccines works why should I believe that?

@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 7/n And just for completeness this is the same but for hospitalizations. Well, apparently the incidence is not so big either. I kind of recognize a few of those <40yo.