Thread by @federicolois

1/n A friend asked me a few days ago what was true about the saying of medics about younger people being hospitalized more often recently in Argentina.
The results are in and the diagnosis is: "Anecdotitis".

2/n Like any scientists that is confronted with some 'truth', you try to figure out the nitty gritty details of it. I know what you are thinking, but scientists are a pretty rare species nowadays. I would say an endangered species.

3/n The first thing anyone with at least 2 fingers of forehead is to go to the case file and look at the distribution of death. Well, not unexpected AT ALL.

4/n Then you go and look into hospitalizations, then we find those that have date of entry into hospital care. Easy-peasy. But then you find that the median age is 58yo... WTF!!! So, there is something here after all!!!

5/n But, did you notice that they said 'recently'?. So, if 58yo was the entire dataset, what is the number for the last months... I was scared (NOT) for a few minutes. So, I would take the last month and a half. Back to 60+yo in median. Mhhh... are you smelling that too?

6/n That makes me think of something, hospitals are paid extra for SARS-Cov-2 cases. If you would hospitalize people that wouldn't actually need it when would that happen? Obviously, when there was not a lot of cases before the first wave peak. Right? So that is what I filtered.

7/n There you go, anecdotitis. I am sorry to have to say this, I dont like to call out people that given the situation is doing the best they can on a shit situation, but ICU MDs are especially prone to confirmation bias. They look at the worst cases, so they miss the forest.

8/n Pretty PLEASE!!! Let the ones that know how to work with the statistics say that and do what you know how to do BEST which is treating people that it is very ill. NO, younger people are not being hospitalized more in Argentina.

9/n Problem arise because you used to see milder cases in the ICU or in the floor that are now sent home. The only you see now are the worst cases creating a disproportionately partial and WRONG view. Fear mongering when not true at the TV is WRONG (even if you think it is true).