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Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
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3 May, 9 tweets, 3 min read
1/x The Fed gave the market a clear green light. And despite negative flows at EOM due to risk parity rebalancing & the discussed~$100B of supply coming to market via lockup’s & Corp🪟’s by Qtr end, concentrated in tech, & concerns
2/x surrounding tax selling & waning seasonality, Gary 🦍 has barely flinched..He maintains a very steady hand and w/👸&🦥 finally back from 🏖late in the day Fri, as expected, & w/ it being BOM the Wheel of Fortune is fully staffed w/their Full cast of characters, refreshed &
3/x ready to go. The burden of proof remains on the 🐻 to disprove the bull thesis at this point, as ⏰ is not a 🐻’s friend until 5/19. The 20-60 day momentum is undeniable. Don’t over think it. Price is truth. When a graph continues to proceed bottom left to top right and the
4/x usual forces are at play, it rarely pays to fade the rally. Continue to BTD at our *** levels, trading from 2 sides, w/an objective of 4136.25. We have even gotten a much needed sentiment adjustment in the last several sessions, which is long overdue due. This all said, It’s
5/x still important @ this seasonal transition into May w/the 20 day std dev narrowing into a tight wedge to watch & react quickly, as a technical break of the 20 day isn’t far away & is climbing quickly, as that level is still our ascending 🛑loss on close for longs until 5/6.
6/x Today should be very telling & help us gauge the degree to which we will be able to be risk on until 5/19... 👀 to continued weakness that we have been calling for in NDX & IWM, As it will ultimately be the center of gravity to drag down SPX, if it’s to happen. That and
7/x rates continue to damage market breadth & could still pull down SPX, if it is to happen, so watch closely. The 13892 *** in NQ is a battlefield... Continue to play dispersion, w/ hedges in IWM, IGV & ARKK doomsday machine names vs SPX..Fragility’s still systemic on the tails,
8/x so continue to own downside convexity funded premium neutral w/local Ivol, but continue to BTD @ our levels, especially during ‘vanna time🪟’s’... Long call verticals & call calendars with short strikes struck at 4245 & above. 4225-4240 is still the destination.
9/9 our confidence should grow the stronger Gary 🦍 is between 9am-12pm cst. Don’t be dogmatic the 1st few hours. Ride the 🌊...Flow like💦, my friends. Good luck!!!🍀🍀🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
5 May
1/x what it takes to get a prediction with its path 💯% accurate is essentially no different than facing Super Mario’s spinning flames of death for the 1st time w/only a cursory experience of how the game works. Getting it right takes deep preparation, concentration, & discipline
2/x Today was a perfect example. Despite having the NDX relative weakness pegged & an understanding that this NDX relative weakness if it continued to expand would force @ min a game of 🐔 for the SPX @ the 20 day, and likely a break there would lead to a bigger liquidation, &
3/x also knowing that in the morning and late day Vanna would be around, and with Gary still oversupplied, Vanna would likely still be able to get the upper hand, it took a lot of discipline & timely focus to turn short immediately on the vanna flows in the morning & long for the
Read 12 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
5 May
1/x What it’s like to be Le🥐 on TWTR...after being spotOn 9/10 days for the last 10 months on both shorterm & longterm direction & path, NTM both macro & microstructural catalysts of them & IVol, dispersion, skew & term structure, I received grief today when market briefly
2/x dropped below the 20 day...Despite: 1) calling for NDX/IWM underperformance for a week ✅ 2)telling people to look for a likely coming game of 🐔 @ the 20 day since last Friday. ✅ 3) specifically tweeting this morning after AM vanna flows back to 4180 to be prepared for an
3/x imminent game of 🐔 ✅ 4)at 1pm w/ SPX trading 4133 tweeting to be prepared for more games of🐔✅ 5)Telling followers to be long convexity funded by local Vol ✅ 6) telling followers to own calendar spreads which have expanded aggressively 2 weeks now ✅ 7)Telling followers
Read 6 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
30 Apr
1/x This market is battling what should be an Easy Green tape after hours...W/ Ivols ascending off of a new base @16 VIX & continuing to find support into a rally, there’s reason to believe that Gary🦍hasn’t been getting the same daily dose of🍌’s he has grown accustomed to the
2/x last 24 hrs. & w/out a well FED Gary 🦍,things could quickly spin out of control on the Wheel of Fortune...Luckily 👸&🦥are on their way back from the🏖late in the day, & w/ it being EOM/BOM they should be refreshed & ready to go starting around 2pm CST, assuming Gary can
3/x hold it together until then...As I’ve said in the past, often it’s what doesn’t happen relative to expectations that informs us about the strength of the 35% of flows that we don’t see. If we’re unable to rally to our🎯‘ed resistance of ***4235 by 5/3 AM, w/👸&🦥back, this’ll
Read 8 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
28 Apr
1/x A short & sweet midweek 🥐... Everything from Mon👇 still applies. Despite every reason to see a price decline, Gary 🦍, Vanna 👸, & Charm 🦥 have other plans. SPX IVol is getting the💩squeezed out of it. With the 1 day event straddle at only $20 w/ Fed & SOTU tomorrow,
2/x Dealers are playing ‘Hot Crossed Buns’ w/anything w/theta. Don’t fight a well FED🦍, especially when the zookeepers are entering the cages🍌in hand...Don’t do it. regardless of the fundamentals, or the narrative, or the technicals, or the sentiment, or the positioning...’
3/x especially as The🪟is closing & Vanna👸& Our charming 🦥 are packing their bags, ready to return from the 🏖 & add a little well rested summer support...Unless The Zoo keepers decide to wreak havoc & take the🍌’s away, dispersión is the play.
Read 5 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
26 Apr
1/x so here we are after 2 weeks of a 🐌’s pace, correction in ⏰. The🪟is closing & our🐌is now primed for liftoff. As I explained last Sun night, the markets had every reason to decline in this🪟already. But it hasn’t even played🐔. Despite a long list of reasons to be🐻’ish,
2/x including: 1)Vanna👸&Charm🦥 away @ the 🏖 for an extended vacay, 2) sentiment/positioning historically stretched by almost every metric, 3) a VVIX/VIX ratio blinking🚨, 4)earnings season after a massive run calling for what should be some natural profit taking 5)an imminent
3/x Tax season & 1 year anniversary of longs also calling for profit taking selling flows, 6)seasonality waning as we head towards May 7)& most importantly, a Fed that’s more likely than expected to begin walking back its ultra loose rhetoric, as we continue to see upside
Read 10 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
23 Apr
1/x This will be a short daily 🥐...everything from Wed still applies 👇. 🪟of weakness opened 4/12 w/ 4140 *** hit. & Here we are @ 4140 after almost 2 weeks! all things considered, this is a victory for the bulls, considering👸& 🦥 are @ 🏖, & it is a tribute to the power of a
2/x well FED Gary🦍. This is a textbook correction in⏰. But The🪟’s still open. Whether we get more of a price correction remains to be👀.Remember a🪟is just a🪟.A👸/🦥vacay doesn’t push market⬇️, it removes support & creates vulnerability..but time is running out for the 🐻’s.
3/x A decline to the 20 day for a last minute game of🐔to shake the longs would be an ideal Mon- Wed activity, but unless someone can manage to take away Gary’s🍌🍌 & make him hangry enough to lose control/ start breaking things following the Fed meeting & SoTU...I would expect
Read 9 tweets

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