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Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
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30 Apr, 8 tweets, 3 min read
1/x This market is battling what should be an Easy Green tape after hours...W/ Ivols ascending off of a new base @16 VIX & continuing to find support into a rally, there’s reason to believe that Gary🦍hasn’t been getting the same daily dose of🍌’s he has grown accustomed to the
2/x last 24 hrs. & w/out a well FED Gary 🦍,things could quickly spin out of control on the Wheel of Fortune...Luckily 👸&🦥are on their way back from the🏖late in the day, & w/ it being EOM/BOM they should be refreshed & ready to go starting around 2pm CST, assuming Gary can
3/x hold it together until then...As I’ve said in the past, often it’s what doesn’t happen relative to expectations that informs us about the strength of the 35% of flows that we don’t see. If we’re unable to rally to our🎯‘ed resistance of ***4235 by 5/3 AM, w/👸&🦥back, this’ll
4/x be reason for⚠️. It’s important @ this seasonal transition into May w/the 20 day std dev narrowing into a tight wedge to watch & react quickly, as a technical break of the 20 day isn’t far away & is climbing quickly, as that level is still our ascending 🛑loss on close on
5/x longs until 5/6. The next 2 days should be very telling & help us gauge the underlying strength of the market. Momentum has been very strong but the acceleration of weakness that we have been calling for in NDX & IWM is to be 👀 closely. As it could drag down SPX. W/out a
6/x break here in the next 1.5 days, ⏰ isn’t a 🐻’s friend. As👸& 🦥’s strength should grow in the weeks to come, peaking 5/17-19. Continue to play dispersion, w/ hedges in IWM, IGV & ARKK doomsday machine names vs SPX! Fragility is still systemic on the tails, so own downside
7/x convexity funded premium neutral w/local Ivol . Share flows show ~$100B of supply coming to market via lockup’s & Corp🪟’s by Qtr end, concentrated in tech & mostly in the next 2 weeks. This paired w/ concerns surrounding tax selling & waning seasonality should be 👀like an
8/8 🦅...continue to BTD @ our levels during vanna time🪟’s but take profits... Don’t be a🦸‍♂️the next 1.5 days & Don’t be dogmatic...Flow like💦, my friends. Good luck!!!🍀🍀🍀

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Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
28 Apr
1/x A short & sweet midweek 🥐... Everything from Mon👇 still applies. Despite every reason to see a price decline, Gary 🦍, Vanna 👸, & Charm 🦥 have other plans. SPX IVol is getting the💩squeezed out of it. With the 1 day event straddle at only $20 w/ Fed & SOTU tomorrow,
2/x Dealers are playing ‘Hot Crossed Buns’ w/anything w/theta. Don’t fight a well FED🦍, especially when the zookeepers are entering the cages🍌in hand...Don’t do it. regardless of the fundamentals, or the narrative, or the technicals, or the sentiment, or the positioning...’
3/x especially as The🪟is closing & Vanna👸& Our charming 🦥 are packing their bags, ready to return from the 🏖 & add a little well rested summer support...Unless The Zoo keepers decide to wreak havoc & take the🍌’s away, dispersión is the play.
Read 5 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
26 Apr
1/x so here we are after 2 weeks of a 🐌’s pace, correction in ⏰. The🪟is closing & our🐌is now primed for liftoff. As I explained last Sun night, the markets had every reason to decline in this🪟already. But it hasn’t even played🐔. Despite a long list of reasons to be🐻’ish,
2/x including: 1)Vanna👸&Charm🦥 away @ the 🏖 for an extended vacay, 2) sentiment/positioning historically stretched by almost every metric, 3) a VVIX/VIX ratio blinking🚨, 4)earnings season after a massive run calling for what should be some natural profit taking 5)an imminent
3/x Tax season & 1 year anniversary of longs also calling for profit taking selling flows, 6)seasonality waning as we head towards May 7)& most importantly, a Fed that’s more likely than expected to begin walking back its ultra loose rhetoric, as we continue to see upside
Read 10 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
23 Apr
1/x This will be a short daily 🥐...everything from Wed still applies 👇. 🪟of weakness opened 4/12 w/ 4140 *** hit. & Here we are @ 4140 after almost 2 weeks! all things considered, this is a victory for the bulls, considering👸& 🦥 are @ 🏖, & it is a tribute to the power of a
2/x well FED Gary🦍. This is a textbook correction in⏰. But The🪟’s still open. Whether we get more of a price correction remains to be👀.Remember a🪟is just a🪟.A👸/🦥vacay doesn’t push market⬇️, it removes support & creates vulnerability..but time is running out for the 🐻’s.
3/x A decline to the 20 day for a last minute game of🐔to shake the longs would be an ideal Mon- Wed activity, but unless someone can manage to take away Gary’s🍌🍌 & make him hangry enough to lose control/ start breaking things following the Fed meeting & SoTU...I would expect
Read 9 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
21 Apr
1/x Everybody Panic!!! The number of people coming out & claiming to be ‘Fully hedged’ AFTER today is surprising... This market has been in desperate need of a sentiment reset and a healthy correction in price & time & it seems to be getting Just that.Though we are still 50%
2/x short after monetizing the move down in IWM, we are still long calendars in SPX, long dispersión, & long 3/30 event Vol, while eyeing a couple of days of digestion & increasingly shifting our put calendar exposure to the call side... As stated earlier today, a🪟of weakness
3/x opened 4/12.4140-4175 was hit, as predicted & over a week later, we’re @4120. This is what correction in time/$👀like. Whether we get more $ correction remains to be👀. But remember a🪟is just a🪟. A👸/🦥vacay doesn’t push market⬇️, it removes support & creates vulnerability
Read 12 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
19 Apr
1/x I learned a loooong time ago to never fight a well FED Gary 🦍...Despite a long list of reasons to be 🐻’ish, including: 1)Vanna 👸 & Charm 🦥 away @ the 🏖 for an extended vacation, 2) sentiment & positioning historically stretched by almost every metric, 3) a VVIX/VIX ratio
2/x blinking 🚨, 4) earnings season after a massive run calling for what should be some natural profit taking, 5)an imminent Tax season & 1 year anniversary of longs also calling for profit taking selling flows, 6)seasonality waning as we head towards May, 7) & probably most
3/x importantly, a Fed that is more likely than expected to begin walking back its ultra loose rhetoric, as we continue to see upside surprises in NFP, earnings, & a dramatic acceleration in vaccination + a reopening of the domestic economy. But despite all of these, the SPX
Read 12 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
16 Apr
1/x Just as Gary’s 🦍positioning reflexively effects the outcome of his bets, I’ve become convinced that my calls are reflexively beginning to effect the outcomes of my predictions... so, I’m gonna keep it🤫tonight. There are simply too many Care Bears crowding my magical 🌈.
2/x Given the trajectory, NDX leadership, strong seasonality, all the late quant flows tied to declining Vol which still have a ways to go, Gary’s dramatic oversupply & the zookeepers still steady supply of🍌’s despite the overwhelming size of the rally relative to IVols,there’s
3/x every reason to believe that all these factors paired w/the fact that now savvy 🥐’s are joining simple minded 🌷’s as 🐻’s, that whatever likely correction we get here, will probably end up only amounting to another choppy short-lived correction in time, Supported over the
Read 5 tweets

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