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5 May, 6 tweets, 1 min read
My predictions are based on these specific constituencies, and the number of votes the SNP need to win it.
Dumbarton - 100 votes
Edinburgh Central - 600 votes
Aberdeenshire West - 900 votes
Edinburgh South - 1,000 votes
Last time the SNP had 46.5% of the constituency vote. Anything above 48% should mean they win at least two of those seats, and they would do so without losing anything from the list.
There are seven seats the SNP can win without losing any list seats. And if they do win any where they lose one from the list as well, it's going to be a straight exchange, one for one.
It was only 700 votes last time that stopped the SNP winning a full majority.
At the last election the SNP polled 46.5% of the constituency vote, and came up 700 votes short.
Depending if they get the right votes in the right constituencies, 47% is a borderline majority, and 49% means a safe majority.
Anything between 47 and 49 should - SHOULD - do it

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More from @Staedtler

Staedtler Profile picture
6 May
Since 1929 when Britain became a full democracy the Conservatives have beaten Labour 14 times, and Labour have beaten the Conservatives 10 times.
Elections resulting in a majority of 50+ since 1945 have been won by:

Attlee 1945 (Lab)
Eden 1955 (Con)
Macmillan 1959 (Con)
Wilson 1966 (Lab)
Thatcher 1983 (Con)
Thatcher 1987 (Con)
Blair 1997 (Lab)
Blair 2001 (Lab)
Blair 2005 (Lab)
Johnson 2019 (Con)
Since 1945 the Conservatives have had 4 leaders who won majorities of 50 or more, while Labour has had 3
Read 8 tweets
Staedtler Profile picture
6 May
First of all enough of this wank about who is the oldest democracy. We're going to establish terms.

First we define democracy as being universal suffrage above a certain age regardless of gender.
Under this definition of universal suffrage Britain first became a democracy in 1928.
Anything before that belongs in prehistory and cannot be compared with the modern world.
So beginning in 1928 with the birth of democracy in Britain, I wonder what governments there have been. I don't know the answer to this so I'll have to look it all up . . .
Read 16 tweets
Staedtler Profile picture
5 May
It seems to me that political and geographic accuracy is not something that English newsmen have ever been challenged on before, but they should.
If you're talking about the government of the United Kingdom, then that's fine, of course you call it Britain.
But that's not what English newsmen do
English newsmen continually refer to English politics as "Britain".
For example, they'll tell you that "Britain" is reconciled to Brexit because both Labour and the Tories accept it.
Read 6 tweets
Staedtler Profile picture
5 May
It's a long time since Labour won their last election, but it's a long time since the Tories won one as well.
If you think about it in the right way.
Cameron didn't win a majority in 2010. Won a small majority in 2015, which Theresa May then lost in 2017. Johnson won a majority of 80 in 2019, the first substantial majority the Tories had won since 1987
The Tories keep finding themselves in government, but every time they do it proves chaotic.
In 1992 Major won a small majority, which Tony Blair then swept away.
Read 14 tweets
Staedtler Profile picture
4 May
I was right about Brexit except just one thing.
I was right that the English would vote leave and Scotland vote remain.
I was right that Theresa May would fail to get her stupid non-Brexit through parliament
I was right that she would lose her majority. I was right that she would end up having to resign.
I was also right that the only viable Brexit was a total Brexit. That it was all the Tories would ever accept.
I was also right that such a Brexit was bound to destroy the country. In all these things I was right four years ago and have been right ever since.

B U T
Read 5 tweets
Staedtler Profile picture
4 May
All these Englishmen are missing the phenomenal success of the SNP in Scotland.
If the SNP win 65 of the 73 constituency seats, they have a majority of 1
But let's work it out.

65 divided by 73 equals 0.89, or 89%.

For comparison 89% of the seats in Westminster equals 578 seats. Which would be a majority of 506
The SNP is about to win the kind of majority in Scotland that if it happened in England would send the country into total hysteria. And yet the English have barely noticed.
Read 5 tweets

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