Further evidence that the constituency for trade policy is changing.
And USTR is changing.

Their first statement under Biden was on racial equity.
Their first annual trade policy report explicitly laid out their metric of success is not low prices, but high wages.
Personnel is policy: makes a big difference to have folks like @AmbassadorTai @Brad_Setser @AmPhoenixTrade and many more running trade. Here's a piece from latter on when we tried to take New Deal global and how that provides a template for where we go now
washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/april…
And here's the official statement. Thank you Ambassador Katherine Tai!
"The U.S. isn’t the only country that until now has withheld support for the waiver. The EU, U.K., Japan, Switzerland, Brazil and Norway also have resisted the push. However, supporters of the waiver argue that U.S. leadership on the issue could help sway other holdouts."
Humanity owes India, South Africa, and 100 other countries - as well as all the US legislators and grassroots activists - a debt of gratitude for pushing US to retain said humanity.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Here's more detail on the growing People Before Profits caucus in Congress.
Though as noted here, such a caucus name (made up by me) would not even be accurate as the companies are gonna profit just fine
That's what the @JosephEStiglitz @WallachLori piece gets at well. This is not about a perfect sequencing of the correct technical solutions - it's about power. Change the power dynamics and there's a lotta technical pathways to the right place.
When the WHO and the WTO agendas come into conflict, it's not usual that the former prevails. A welcome change in dynamic.
There should be no request from the US to get anything from developing countries for the immediate COVID vaccine flexibilities.
However, going forward, if the US shows willingness to expand those flexibilities, it will create something we haven't had since the 1990s: stuff to bargain over. Give on IPR, get on green industrial policy subsidies - times a variable geometry of dozens of issues.
Or as Kim Stanley Robinson has written, “Overcome difficulties by multiplying them.”
toddntucker.medium.com/ministry-for-y…

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More from @toddntucker

16 Mar
Keynes throwing shade at Cordell Hull over what would become the GATT is a delight
cambridge.org/core/books/gen…
There's the invisible hand, the visible hand, and the moribund hand of MFN
He saw the liberal era as a vindication for national economic planning
Read 4 tweets
16 Mar
Thirteen senators call on Biden to temporarily suspend Buy American waivers for trade agreement partners, noting "this crisis has demonstrated the risks of long foreign supply chains."

Baldwin and Brown joined by Sanders, Warren, Markey, others.
wispolitics.com/2021/u-s-sen-b…
This presidential discretion is built into the Trade Agreements Act of 1979, which greenlit the waivers in the first place. No statutory change needed.
law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/19…
While some will bemoan the symbolism of closing procurement opportunities for allies, the reality is that: a) there doesn't appear to much uptake of this anyway; and
gao.gov/products/gao-1…
Read 4 tweets
15 Mar
The Trump and Biden administrations have significantly expanded export controls, which prohibit the unlicensed export of certain products or information.

Biden has also called for modernization of international trade rules.

These could be connected.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The 1947 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade has a pretty sweeping obligation for countries to not restrict exports.
wto.org/english/docs_e…
But the GATT also has a pretty sweeping national security exception.
Read 15 tweets
14 Mar
Barbados to remove Queen Elizabeth as head of state. Observers watching to see if Jamaica may follow.

Last country to do so was Mauritius in 1992.

Oprah's most consequential interview?

Ht @PorterMcConnell bbc.com/news/world-lat…
(Yes, as people have noted, this article is old.)
Also from Sept. 2020, here's a note on Jamaica contemplating same, after a debate in 2016 around deplatforming her as Jamaican head of state.
express.co.uk/news/royal/133…
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
Helpful @climatestrat study on the WTO implications of fossil fuel subsidies from 2017 by @cleoverk @harrovanasselt Tom Moerenhout @Liesbeth_C87 @PWooders. Thread
climatestrategies.org/publication/ta…
The tl;dr is that

the WTO is generally an anti-subsidy machine,

there are a bunch of types of fossil fuel subsidies,

but it is not a slam dunk that any of them violate WTO rules.
This is because schemes subsidize consumption rather than production, and all else equal the WTO rules are more concerned with the latter.
Read 26 tweets
3 Mar
If EU countries pulled out of the Energy Charter Treaty tomorrow, fossil fuel companies could still sue them for decarbonization efforts for 20 (!!) years.
politico.eu/article/energy…
That gets uncomfortably close to the EU's 2050 target date for attaining carbon neutrality.
ec.europa.eu/clima/policies…
And here are the withdrawal provisions, with a 20 year overhang period.
energycharter.org/fileadmin/Docu… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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