1.5M futile COVID deaths in the West.
They compare to 18k in the Asia-Pacific region.
Who will be accountable?
Thread🧵
Those who apologize for Western countries say: We had it so much harder here. Did we?
For every disadvantage the West had, we can find countries in the East who did really well.
Sure, being an island and having a young population helps. But that doesn't determine the outcome
See? For example Indonesia and Philippines are similar in COVID advantages to countries like Vietnam, Thailand or Mongolia, except Id and PH were islands, yet did worse.
Also, Britain and Ireland are quite similar to countries liek Japan or South Korea, and yet here we are
So what drew the success of COVID then, if not lucky advantages? What about good management?
Where did the West fail? You can know by asking any infected person:
Did they immediately receive a call from contact tracers?
Did they collaborate with them?
Did they exhaustively go through all their contacts?
Did the tracers contact all the contacts within 24h?
Were the contacts cooperative?
Did they get a mandate to stay home?
Were they taken to an isolation facility?
Did an app, the police, or someone else check with them to make sure that they respected the isolation?
Were there mechanisms to penalize those who didn’t respect the isolations?
Was there a similar process for contacts, whereby these were mandated to stay home and their quarantine was monitored, enforced, and penalized if not respected?
...
So many things they simply did poorly
They replaced management with ineptitude.
Most of what we needed to know to battle COVID we knew by April 2020.
Instead, Western govs missed the exponential growth of the virus.
They missed that it was a pandemic, and declared its existence so late.
They thought the population wouldn’t respect a lockdown.
They toyed with natural herd immunity. Some, like Sweden and Brazil, embraced it.
They lied, saying masks were unnecessary.
And so much more
I'm launching a newsletter, Uncharted Territories!
Have you noticed how it feels like the world is mutating faster and faster? Like we can’t keep up with what’s happening.
I believe this is just the beginning. Thread 🧵
I believe that some of us alive today will live forever. Maybe you, reading this.
I believe AI will make our lives unrecognizably better. It will also push many into poverty.
2/12
I believe wealth will keep concentrating in the hands of a few, especially the hands of builders of aggregators.
I believe nation-states will drift into irrelevance.
I believe geography will matter less and less.
3/12
It touches on many important topics: What's trust and who to trust, government failures, human biases, clashes of values, intellectual inconsistencies...
She interviewed me over email. It's hard to condense that kind of information. I had much more content in my email, so I pasted the entire interview in this article:
Lots of bad takes on Biden's proposed tax hike. I must be missing something. What is it?
1. Why do we need to increase taxes if we can print money?
➡️ Too much cash causes inflation. Take some of that cash out of the system through taxes. + tools, + precision on outcomes
2. If you print $ to increase capital gains and then tax them, ppl are worse off
A: You have $100 in stock, appreciates 7% in a year, 0% inflation, 20% capital gains tax➡️$105.6 at the end of the year
B: $100, 40% appreciation, 5% inflation, 40% capital gains tax➡️$118
3. It will disincentivize investments.
➡️What's these ppl's alternative?
Spending? That would be better for the economy. The savings rate of the top brackets is through the roof.
Capital flight? US income taxes are charged on global income, can't escape these like a business
Scientists have something to learn from musicians.
Their business models are changing in a similar direction. The ones who realize it quickly will gather an impact and wealth that few could have dreamed of before. 🧵
The currency of scientists is references to their published papers: The more references they get, the more successful they're considered, the more likely they are to get tenure, go up the ranks, and make $
That business model means they need to please their peers and the scientific journals.
Both of these are traditional gatekeepers who have a strong incentive about reputation. The more on the cutting edge the paper, the better. The more jargon, the more it looks advanced.
How many times have you heard excuses of why the West couldn't control COVID? Only islands, only authoritarian regimes...
Alternative interpretation:
To be clear, I'm not saying it was sufficient to do test-trace-isolate well to control the virus. But it was necessary: without it, you couldn't succeed.
The countries who did test-trace-isolate well also did other things, notably all have a good fence. nytimes.com/interactive/20…