Thread by @SamCoatesSky

Polls have closed

Signs of Labour recriminations evident in anticipation of difficult results

As ballots are counted in Hartlepool, one question being asked internally is: was it wise of Labour to chose to hold the Hartlepool by-election on Super Thursday and dominate?

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2/ Remember political parties have a fair degree of control over when to hold a by-election caused by the departure of one of their own.

Holding Hartlepool today was Labour’s choice

Here’s the Institute for Government Cath Haddon on how Labour “could have taken a bit longer”

3/ Why might you have wanted to hold Hartlepool another time?

The main reason wd be to avoid it on the same day as the Tees Valley Metro Mayor vote.

Labour folk expect Tory Ben Houchen to be re-elected meaning his voters - also Tories - would already be out in force

4/ I’m told by Labour sources that the decision to press ahead with the by-election was done by Jenny (now Baroness) Chapman, the top political advisor to Keir Starmer.

She knows the Tees area as previously MP for Darlington for 9 years until 2019.

5/ I’m also told objections to holding Hartlepool today were raised by others but overruled. Concerns about decision making process.

There’s a more general concern amongst shadow cabinet figures loyal to Starmer about the way the Leaders Office operates without much consultation

6/ Keir Starmer’s office did not formally respond to comment that Jenny Chapman took the decision and overruled objections

I understand they would argue the decision was taken with the whips office, which is run by Labour Chief Whip Nick Brown

7/ Also I understand Keir Starmer’s office want to draw a distinction with the previous leadership and whips who let Mike Hill, the MP who quit Hartlepool creating the by-election, back in the party despite accusations against him.

This leader’s office wouldn’t tolerate that

8/ This is interesting because it suggests that privately Keir Starmer’s office would point the finger at Nick Brown, Labour chief whip.

A leadership at odds with its chief whip, if that’s what we are witnessing, is never a happy place

9/ There are counterfactuals.

Maybe there was never a good time to hold a by-election where the opposition could lose to a 12 year old governing party?

Maybe the narrative about the future of the Union drowns out some of the opportunities for Labour infighting.

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What’s certainty true is there is unhappiness amongst Shad cabinet loyalists about the way Keir Starmer’s office handles some issues which is starting to surface

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Postscript

I’m told there’s be one other reason for combining the elections and holding Hartlepool today: cost

Labour is pretty cash strapped. Some staff expected to depart soon. You could combine promotional material for MP, council and metro mayor & keep down expenses

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Postscript 2

The other model - separating Hartlepool from today - would be based on Peterborough 2019 en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Pete…

This allowed
- More work and activists to work on GOTV
- Less distraction from national issues (then Europe)