Thread by @PME_Politics

So, #SuperThursday polls have closed!

Thanks to everyone involved behind the scenes in making sure this democratic exercise could take place.

Here are a few thoughts about what I think we might see over the next few days as results come in. It's going to be quite a ride!

1/n

First - yes, it's the "red wall".

A large number of councils in the north and midlands where the Conservatives won a traditionally Labour-held constituency in 2019 held elections today.

But while both Dudley and Durham share that definition, they're apples and pears for today.

Councils seats being contested today in areas like Dudley, Wolverhampton, Bury, and Burnley were last fought in 2016.

Back then, Labour and the Conservatives were in a virtual tie in the polls.

UKIP were arguably at the peak of their powers, and won 58 council seats that year.

But seats up for grabs today in Doncaster, Durham, and Northumberland were last contested in 2017.

This time that year, Theresa May was around 15-20 points ahead of Labour, and looked to be steamrollering toward a parliamentary majority in the June snap election.

Why's that important? Well, Labour could very well have both a good and a bad night in 'red wall councils'. They may lose seats and possibly control of a few which were last contested in 2016, but could gain ground in areas where the Tories are defending strong 2017 results.

Secondly, it's much less talked about but there are a number of 'blue wall' councils where voters have been at the polls today.

Areas which return Conservative MPs but voted Remain in 2016 and held elections include:
- Trafford
- Sefton
- Stroud
- Cheltenham
- West Oxfordshire

Results in these areas will give us an indication of how voters in a very different sort of Conservative-friendly territory to the 'red wall' are thinking and feeling about Johnson and his party's direction.

These voters will be crucial to future Labour success.

Thirdly, keep an eye on the Greens.

Looking at their position in the polls compared to 2016 and 2017, they could be set to gain dozens of councillors.

In Wales, they've an outside chance of winning their first ever Senedd seat.

In Scotland, they could double their MSPs.

Lastly, what happens to turnout?

On the one hand, fears over Covid-19 safety may act to dissuade voters from heading to the polls.

On the other hand, coverage of the elections has been high, and voters may be champing at the bit to have their say after being denied last year.

These are just some of the stories and dynamics that I think will be worth keeping an eye on as the results come in over the next few days.

As ever, I'll be working with Professor Sir John Curtice and team to analyse the results and provide you all with best possible coverage.

Oh, and Count Binface beating Laurence Fox, anyone?

Probably should tag on that the Welsh and Scottish parliaments will of course provide us with hugely exciting drama too - will Labour and the SNP win (respective) majorities?

But that goes without saying, right?

Fwiw, I think it'll be no in the former but yes in the latter.