Thread by @PME_Politics

From data collected and analysed by the BBC (1247 'key wards' across the country), we can calculate an implied swing since the 2019 General Election.

That figure is a 3-point swing toward Labour.

If applied uniformly across the GB, that would be around:

Con: 340 seats
Lab: 221

The swing is differential across different regions of the country.

For example, there has been a swing to Labour of around 5 points in the West Midlands, but there was a swing *to the Conservatives* of around 1 point in the North West.

But the story is very different when compared to 2016, the last time many of the district councils were up.

There were 16-21 swings of 12.3 to the Conservatives in the North East, 8 points in the West Midlands, and 6 points in Yorkshire.

That's why they took so many seats.

So the district council results tell two stories at the same time:

1) Decline from 2016, large losses of council seats.
2) Nonetheless, signs of some slight recovery from the 2019 General Election disaster.

Both are just as important to the future direction of British politics.

One thing which should of course be noted is that these are local council voting figures. Council elections are not General Elections, and people vote differently between the,. But it nonetheless gives us a handy barometer of direction of travel - particularly between Lab and Con

*between them....

That's an "I've been working for 27 out of the last 36 hours" typo!!

I’ve also just now noticed that I wrote “the GB” in the first tweet! Dear lord, I need to pay someone to proof read my tired tweets 😅