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Arieh Kovler Profile picture
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7 May, 6 tweets, 2 min read
I wonder if the world is about to face significant inflationary pressure. Supply issues for appliances, low interest rates, stimulus cheques / furlough payments, post-Covid optimisim in the West...
Also: mass access to high-volatility investments that seem very bubbleish
It's been 30 years since inflation was out of control in most Western countries. Millennials haven't experienced high inflation, let alone Zoomers. If it comes it'll be a big shock.
I should also mention a big increase in shipping container rates has already pushed up appliance prices in Israel this week. Someone in my DMs says shipping prices China->USA are also massively up and will be passed onto consumers eventually.
The food industry is already reporting price increases in raw materials and shipping (thx @9six7)
fooddive.com/news/as-inflat…
Well.

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More from @ariehkovler

Arieh Kovler Profile picture
7 May
Nobody is prepared for what happens when this "audit" finds "evidence of fraud". It's going to be ugly.
The Arizona legislature, which commissioned the "audit", will surely accept its conclusions however wild they are. Perhaps they'll do that via a motion rejecting the 2020 result?
That might also mean a criminal investigation against innocent election officials in Maricopa. No convictions will follow but it'll take months.
Read 11 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
4 May
I'm writing indoors at a cafe for the first time since March 2020. Every table is taken and every person has a laptop out. It's completely silent apart from the background music.
Someone just came in, saw there were no tables and went to leave when someone else offered to share a table. The new person has no laptop, but she has ringbinders. Silence continues.
Someone answered her phone. The rest of us are giving her dirty looks.
Read 9 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
3 May
I think this NYTimes article is too pessimistic. In particular, it doesn't take account of the situation in Israel, where it looks like there *might* be population immunity with just 54% vaccination.

nytimes.com/2021/05/03/hea…
Almost 30% of the population in Israel is under the age of 16. The young population meant that we weren't *expecting* herd immunity here until kids could be vaccinated.
The article suggests that you need 80% vaccination coverage to keep unmitigated R<1. But that doesn't seem to be what we're seeing in real life. Maybe because infected kids alone don't transmit the virus to enough other people to keep the pandemic going?
Read 12 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
1 May
The "watermark" theory was all over MAGA and QAnon in the week after the election. The theory was that Trump had ordered the US military to secretly watermarked the ballots in order to expose fraud by state officials.
Here's a few examples from 8 November showing what they imagined the "real" ballots might look like under UV light. QAnon adherents also referenced the Q phrase "watch the water", claiming it might refer to watermarks.

The irony is that QAnon dumped the watermarks theory months ago, and have spent recent days explaining how the UV light at the Maricopa "audit" wasn't looking for watermarks because that would be dumb! The UV must really be looking for something else like skin oil
Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
1 May
Was just about to write about Rob Petrosian, a pro-Trump TikTok account that pretends to be a White House Correspondent, posting old videos as if they're news. But @TRWerkmeister got there first. observers.france24.com/en/americas/20…
"Petrosian" has nearly 300k followers on TikTok and his videos have 4.9M likes. They're mostly old clips labelled as if they're happening now, with fake captions
The Petrosian account was behind the false claim that Biden collapsed at the White House during Easter and was hospitalised. This fake claim, complete with a video of reporters running to the West Wing, was all over MAGA networks that day.
Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
30 Apr
Israel's Health Ministry came up with a plan to limit numbers at Meron due to Covid. The plan was ignored by the Government. The authorities just allowed the various Hassidic sects to do their own thing. Last night's tragedy is the result.
This is from a news report yesterday, before the tragedy at Meron.

timesofisrael.com/officials-warn…
From a Haredi website 3 years ago: "Who will prevent a disaster at the Toldot Aharon bonfire lighting?". It noted the narrow exit and risk of a crush. But the authorities turned a blind eye for years until tragedy struck.

Read 4 tweets

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