Thread by @DianeSwonk

Employment disappoints as both employers and workers remained skittish about contagion in April. It has proven hard to awaken from a pandemic-induced coma than go into one. Only 266k jobs were created during the month.
Gains in restaurants, bars, amusement and gambling drove ⬆️

We also saw a pick up in hiring in public schools, which a long with a rise in funding for daycare facilities should eventually allowed more mothers to rejoin the labor force. So far the gains have been limited as hybrid school models are still tough to schedule around.

Hiring at physician and dental offices picked up, as people scrambled to catch up on routine visits delayed or canceled dusting the worst of the pandemic. Hiring at nursing homes has fallen through the pandemic as those were hit hardest by COVID fatalities.

Losses in employment in part reflected the pivot from spending on goods to services. Employment at grocery stores drove the loss in retail employment as people tired of cooking at home & used stimmy checks to step out a bit.

We also saw a loss in transportation and warehousing, wh in was driven by a drop in hiring of couriers for delivery. Again, this reflects the pivot out of goods and back into services. Manufacturing employment also dropped but that was more due to supply chain bottlenecks.

All of the drop in manufacturing employment was in vehicles and parts, where computer chips shortages have been the most acute. Vehicle manufacturers have had to idle plants as they waited for those critical parts to reach the US from Asia.

We are still down 8.2 million jobs from the peak in February 2020. A sharp drop in unemployment claims and the pace of infections over the course of the month suggests that employment will be much much stronger in May & June.

We will also have (hopefully) a lot more people fully vaccinated by then, which makes it safer for them to return to what where the riskiest of indoor venues. Several states are also lifting restrictions as the pace of infection falls.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1% on the heels of a rise in the participation rate. Men & Black women returned to the labor force, but we are still ⬇️ 3.5 million workers from the peak in February 2020. The unemployment rate is close to 8.1% of those workers are included.

The ranks of the long term unemployed remained stubbornly high at 4.2 million. Many of those workers are now losing extensions to their unemployment benefits. Some are waiting for jobs in entertainment that remain sidelined.

Retirements and burnout have also picked up this year. Many older baby boomers didn’t want to take the risk of getting COVID. It is unclear how many will return now that vaccinations are more available.