A couple of things worth remembering about the last year. The pandemic forced us to send millions home from work & school, through no fault of their own. We then tried to compensate them, not always consistently. They suffered hunger & homeless as benefits lapsed.
Now we are trying to awaken an economy that was forced into a pandemic-induced coma. The process is not easy. There are a lot of gaps. Vaccines took a whole to become plentiful, misinformation propagated & infections in many places were still high in mid April.
Now that we have vaccinations need to get more to take then & have to wait for then to become effective - 2 to 6 weeks, depending on the jab. Then add in long haul COVID suffers who also are less likely to have health insurance & no paid sick or vacation leave.
The same low-wage workers who were hit hardest by COVID-related layoffs were hit hardest by the reality of the disease itself. That makes it harder to return to work, depending on the severity of their symptoms. It’s a lot of people.
Childcare evaporated for many parents as kids shifted to leaning online instead of in-person. School and after school programs evaporated. A key issue this summer is whether summer camps will return. Very important for parents. Childcare centers also closed.
This is at same time that grandparents and older family members could not provide the help they once did to working. The risk of contagion and the worst of outcomes - fatalities was too great. Too many also lost older family members to this crisis.
Funds for childcare are picking up, but schools still not full up and running with after school programs. Vaccines help to allow older relatives provide support but still need to get and achieve efficacy. Fear ab contagion could linger.
Retirements also accelerated. Hospitals hard hit from burnout. We don’t know if these workers will return. Some may not have a choice but to return.
Moral of the story is the pandemic was unique. It is really not helpful to blame the unemployed and lowest paid worker for what is happening. (Understatement.) Many employers also reluctant to hire up until they know we will stay open after reopening.
It is fanciful to believe we can flip a switch & return to world we left given the detour we have taken. Some changes triggered by the pandemic will be long lasting.

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More from @DianeSwonk

8 May
This week jobs, next week inflation for April.

#Inflation will be hot - y/y will easily exceed 3%, could nip at 4%, strongest since 2011.

Some will use the term “stagflation” which was coined in 1973-75 recession to describe ⬆️ inflation & ⬆️ unemployment. That will be wrong.
A good part of the y/y increase is due to what are termed “base effects,” a sharp downdraft in many prices a year ago. Oil prices fell into negative territory in April 2020 - yes, negative. Producers had to pay buyers to store oil they suddenly did not want in lockdowns.
Bottlenecks worsened during the pandemic. Safety protocols forced factories to stagger worker’s shifts and slowed the process of ramping up. An unexpected surge in demand for goods as those who could bought anything they could to ease the stress of isolation.
Read 17 tweets
7 May
Employment disappoints as both employers and workers remained skittish about contagion in April. It has proven hard to awaken from a pandemic-induced coma than go into one. Only 266k jobs were created during the month.
Gains in restaurants, bars, amusement and gambling drove ⬆️
We also saw a pick up in hiring in public schools, which a long with a rise in funding for daycare facilities should eventually allowed more mothers to rejoin the labor force. So far the gains have been limited as hybrid school models are still tough to schedule around.
Hiring at physician and dental offices picked up, as people scrambled to catch up on routine visits delayed or canceled dusting the worst of the pandemic. Hiring at nursing homes has fallen through the pandemic as those were hit hardest by COVID fatalities.
Read 11 tweets
27 Mar
There are a couple things worth pointing out about the labor market. We were still 9.5 million jobs in the hole in Feb - 7.1 M in services, 1.3 mill state & local (mostly education) & 1M elsewhere. A surge in spending on goods helped recoup activity in mfg and construction.
High wage job gains have not only recouped what was lost but are above prepandemic levels. That left pockets of labor shortages. Loss in immigration - largely high skill legal - exacerbated problems. Immigration fell 40% 2016-19 & hit wall in pandemic. Not easy to reverse.
The situation for low-wage workers remains much worse. The @federalreserve has cited the unemployment rate of the low quartile of wage earners at more than 20% - a depression level. The emergency aid and stimulus have - intermittently - replaced incomes but not jobs.
Read 13 tweets
27 Mar
I have been looking into studies on mental health and the pandemic. There are a lot. Welcome suggestions on more. The worst outcomes globally are among those who also suffer the worst in economic stress but they go well beyond that, notably in young adults.
The moral & economic toll is large and broad based. Stress and mental health can undermine productivity, have broad based consequences on health, the cost of health care, further stress an already stressed health care system. It can undermine current and future earnings.
The result of poor mental health flows downhill to children, whose well-being is compromised. Vicious cycles can take hold I. families & communities hardest hit by the pandemic. Inequality is exacerbated, which undermines the overall potential of economies to grow.
Read 5 tweets
26 Mar
Personal incomes & consumer spending lost ground in February after surging on the heels of stimulus checks in January. Harsh winter weather and electricity outages across the whole state of Texas exacerbated the losses. But, the underlying trend is stronger than a month ago.
Consumer spending for January was revised up, suggesting that consumers spent even more of their last round of stimulus checks than previously thought and another, more generous round was issued in March. The last plan upped checks to $1400 from $600 to get to $2000 total.
Preliminary data on March is looking extremely good. Air travel hit its highest level in over a year in March as travel triggered by spring break, a lifting of restrictions, stimulus checks & the fact that the majority of those over 65 are now fully vaccinated spurred demand.
Read 15 tweets
25 Mar
This research is so important as it shows that a lack of in-migration during the pandemic played a larger role than out-migration when looking at shifts in of large urban centers during pandemic. It also correlates with a surge in young adults moving back in w their parents.
Young people did suffer disproportionate layoffs. A smaller group who could work-from-home moved back in w parents for space, safety & to save on rents. Anecdotal reports from Chicago suggest that the downdraft in luxury apt rents has bottomed; apts are being snapped up faster.
Some hybrid of work-from-home is inevitable - many companies were already moving in that direction pre pandemic. That does change downtown dynamics but doesn’t eliminate the value of downtown space. Cities have a lot of amenities and chances for collaboration.
Read 6 tweets

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